Gold is slowing after the recent aggressive rally. Despite yesterday’s CPI coming broadly in line with expectations — headline CPI at 3.4% YoY, core CPI at 2.5% YoY — price has not produced a clean continuation breakout.
Macro Perspective
The CPI reaction has provided some support for Gold, but the market is still waiting for a stronger catalyst. Today, attention shifts toward U.S. PPI and Initial Jobless Claims, which could influence USD and Treasury yields and determine whether Gold can expand beyond its current range.
For now, capital appears cautious rather than aggressively committed to either direction.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently trapped inside a large H4 range after the recent rally.
Upper resistance: 4460–4480
Major resistance: 4525–4540
Key support: 4350–4360
Lower support: 4310–4330
The 4460–4480 Demand + Trendline zone remains the major barrier for buyers. Meanwhile, the 4350–4360 area is the first important support that must hold to maintain the current bullish recovery structure.
Bullish Scenario
If Gold holds above 4350–4360 and successfully breaks 4460–4480, the current consolidation could become an accumulation phase before another expansion toward 4525–4540.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
If price continues to be rejected below 4460–4480 and breaks back under 4350, the recent rally could begin to unwind.
The first downside targets are 4310–4330, followed by 4260–4270.
At this stage, the market is not yet giving a clean directional signal. The better approach is to wait for price to escape one of these two boundaries rather than chase the middle of the range.
Today's Key Events — USD
🔴 Core PPI m/m
🔴 PPI m/m
🟠 Initial Jobless Claims
These releases could provide the next catalyst for Gold’s breakout or rejection.
Gold is now at a decision point: continue accumulating inside the range, or prepare for the next directional expansion.
LucasGray Trading will continue monitoring institutional order flow, USD reaction and macro developments throughout the session, updating the market as new confirmation emerges.
LucasGrayTrading
Macro Perspective
The CPI reaction has provided some support for Gold, but the market is still waiting for a stronger catalyst. Today, attention shifts toward U.S. PPI and Initial Jobless Claims, which could influence USD and Treasury yields and determine whether Gold can expand beyond its current range.
For now, capital appears cautious rather than aggressively committed to either direction.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently trapped inside a large H4 range after the recent rally.
Upper resistance: 4460–4480
Major resistance: 4525–4540
Key support: 4350–4360
Lower support: 4310–4330
The 4460–4480 Demand + Trendline zone remains the major barrier for buyers. Meanwhile, the 4350–4360 area is the first important support that must hold to maintain the current bullish recovery structure.
Bullish Scenario
If Gold holds above 4350–4360 and successfully breaks 4460–4480, the current consolidation could become an accumulation phase before another expansion toward 4525–4540.
Bearish Scenario — Preferred Bias
If price continues to be rejected below 4460–4480 and breaks back under 4350, the recent rally could begin to unwind.
The first downside targets are 4310–4330, followed by 4260–4270.
At this stage, the market is not yet giving a clean directional signal. The better approach is to wait for price to escape one of these two boundaries rather than chase the middle of the range.
Today's Key Events — USD
🔴 Core PPI m/m
🔴 PPI m/m
🟠 Initial Jobless Claims
These releases could provide the next catalyst for Gold’s breakout or rejection.
Gold is now at a decision point: continue accumulating inside the range, or prepare for the next directional expansion.
LucasGray Trading will continue monitoring institutional order flow, USD reaction and macro developments throughout the session, updating the market as new confirmation emerges.
LucasGrayTrading
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.