ICmarkets

Gold: Technical outlook and review.

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
222 0 4
4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

• Weekly timeframe: Selling pressure has begun to weaken out of weekly supply at 1391.97-1328.04 with two relatively long tails being seen indicating buying interest. Price is currently capped between the aforementioned weekly supply area and a nice-looking weekly decision-point level below at 1244.08.

• Daily timeframe: Current trading action is seen between the ignored daily decision-point level at 1292.52 and a daily decision-point level above at 1318.96. A break above would likely force price to test a nice-looking daily supply area at 1344.91-1333.55, conversely, a break below would likely see price testing a long-term daily S/R flip level at 1277.36.

A jump in price has recently been seen making a high of 1310.49. The buyers were not strong enough to push above the high marked with a circle at 1311.07. Following this, the sellers are currently seen slamming price down past both the 4hr S/R flip levels (1304.77/1301.16).

Although price did not close above the high at 1311.07, it came pretty darn close! So, price selling hard like this could be the remnants of consuming a load of sellers around this area, thus further clearing the path north. It is likely another test of the ignored-decision-point level at 1292.52 below will be tested before another rally higher is seen.

Here is a snippet from the last analysis as to why we believe once the high 1311.07 is cleared of sellers, price is clear north up to the 4hr R/S flip level at 1323.04: Our reasoning behind thinking this is because of price action to the left. The small trendline is not there to depict a trend as such, it is more to show how pro money likely consumed the sellers as price was declining, thus very likely clearing the path north for the buyers in the future.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the ignored decision-point level at 1292.52 at 1293.77 is now active. Our first take-profit level was hit late Friday at 1304.77, so do keep an eye out for our second and final take-profit level set at 1323.04.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a P.A confirmation buy order here simply because we could not find a logical area for the stop-loss order, so to avoid any deep spikes; we have decided to wait for confirmation.

• No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1293.77 (Active) (SL: 1286.75 TP: 1304.77 1323.04). P.A.C: 1285.71 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.
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