RLinda

GOLD → Pre-breakdown structure, but NFP is ahead. ↑ or ↓ ?

Long
RLinda Updated   
FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
XAUUSD is updating the high within consolidation after rallying. Technically, this is a good sign, but NFP and unemployment are ahead. The news could either reinforce the move or completely derail it....


A nice bullish pattern is forming on D1 against resistance at 2365. The deceleration and consolidation in front of the level indicates bullish interest in further growth. But today it is worth paying attention to the fundamental background.
From this point of view, the outlook for gold depends on the upcoming news and the reaction of the Fed. Based on previous data, traders expect Friday's employment report to show only 189K new jobs compared to 270K in the previous month, and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged. But the actual data plays a bigger role. Rising unemployment and slowing economic growth may support the gold, as the dollar may continue its localized decline on this background. But, unpredictable data can increase the volatility and affect the market structure in a very opposite way.

Resistance levels: 2364. 2387
Support levels: 2355, 2350, 2341


Technically, on D1-H4 gold shows bullish prerequisites, but the economic component plays a big role, which can both support the current movement and reverse it up to liquidation and decline to 2340-2320.

Regards R. Linda!
Trade active:
US - NON-FARM PAYROLLS (June) = 206,000 (expected 191,000)

US - Unemployment (June) = 4.1% (expected 4%)
Trade active:
Trade closed: target reached
Comment:
Gold may close above a key level. On the background of weak dollar the market has excellent prospects to test ATH
Comment:
What to expect from gold in the coming trading week?
First of all, the favorable fundamental background, price consolidation above MA-50, false breakdown of the ascending trend line support, dollar decline gives traders hope.

Technically, on D1, the bulls closed the trading session very positively. Potentially, we have a range of 2390 - 2431, accordingly, when breaking through 2390 and fixing the price above this area, the bulls can take us to ATH.

From a fundamental point of view, the outlook for gold depends on the upcoming news and the Fed's reaction.
On Friday, job growth was uncritical, traders paid attention to the rise in unemployment, which played a key role on dollar and gold prices in this area. Traders continue to bet that the first interest rate cut will be in September.

If nothing critical happens over the weekend, the fundamental and technical background will remain the same.
In the coming week all focus on: Fed Chair Powell Testifies, GDP UK, Core CPI US, CPI US, PPI

Regards R. Linda!
Comment:
The opening of the session is quiet. Without a gap

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