Gold has had a strong rally after holding the 1W MA50 on the week of February 12 2024 and remains almost overbought on its 1W technical outlook in the past three weeks (RSI = 68.498, MACD = 43.750, ADX = 37.013). The grand pattern on 1W has been a Channel Up dating back to late 2019. As shown on the chart, the last two HL were on the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 respectively, indicating a healthy long term uptrend.
Since March 2022 however, every time the 1W RSI reached the overbought 70.000 level, it was a Sell Signal. This time the price has even breached the 0.786 Fibonacci level, as it did on March 7th 2022. The minimum retrace on such a signal has been -7.59%. This is what we are aiming for (TP = 2,055) and potentially we may see a close contact with the 1W MA50 near that level. Basically all corrections inside the Channel Up have hit the 1W MA50.
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