XAUUSD: Below 4,730 Resistance - Targeting 4,480 Support

5 days ago

Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup.

Market Analysis

XAUUSD was previously trading within a clearly defined upward channel, where price respected both the rising support and resistance boundaries, forming a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This structure confirmed strong bullish control and sustained trend continuation. During this phase, multiple bullish breakouts occurred, each followed by continuation, reinforcing buyer dominance. However, as price reached the upper boundary of the channel near the recent highs, bullish momentum started to fade. The market failed to maintain acceptance at elevated levels, and selling pressure increased sharply.

Currently, gold broke decisively below the lower boundary of the upward channel, marking a clear structural shift. This breakdown was accompanied by strong bearish candles, signaling aggressive seller participation. Price then dropped rapidly into the former Resistance Zone around 4,730, which has now been tested from above and below. The inability to reclaim and hold above this level suggests that previous support has flipped into resistance, reinforcing the bearish bias. Overall, the recent price action points to a trend transition from bullish continuation into a corrective-to-bearish phase.

My Scenario & Strategy

My primary scenario favors a short setup as long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,730 Resistance Zone and continues to show rejection from this area. The current rebound appears corrective in nature, rather than the start of a new bullish leg. As long as price fails to reclaim the broken channel and resistance, I expect selling pressure to resume. The next logical downside target lies near the 4,480 Support Zone, which aligns with previous demand and a rising higher-timeframe trend line, making it a natural area for price to react (TP1).

However, if gold manages to reclaim the 4,730 resistance with strong acceptance and closes back above it, this would weaken the bearish scenario and suggest a deeper recovery or potential range formation. For now, structure favors sellers, with rallies viewed as opportunities for continuation to the downside rather than trend reversal.

That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.

4 days ago

Trade active

If gold can consolidate above the resistance then our pullback will be invalid. For now, it could be a correction.

3 days ago

Trade closed manually

We see a situation where, after a long-term correction, gold has regained its upward trend.