Pending conditional SHORTS on GOLD
Personally I feel Gold is one of the toughest pair to trade, reason being its very sensitive to many factors especially “uncertainties”.
There are many factors that can move Gold, such as strong Dollar can push Gold lower, trade tension escalation can drive Gold higher, vague and bleak global economic outlook can affect gold as well.
Later in the day, we have Powell’s speech on IMF report, although most of the economic concerns were already mentioned earlier (priced in) any hawkish tone will favor dollar.
Technical aspect, Gold is seen rebounding off yearly trendline and supported at 1243.77+/-, with due respect that the support stay intact I will prefer to setup conditional short trade. I do not have crystal ball that it will definitely break but I am expecting current’s gold bull to be short lived as dollar’s now in temporary retracement before further strength continues. Numbers fit nicely with fibo that gives me +1 validity but that doesn’t mean I won’t be wrong too* as long as risk is being addressed.
Likewise I will not jump into a long trade now unless a strong reversal signal is established. ***(Anything similar to false breakout with confirmation)***
`Trade safe
There are many factors that can move Gold, such as strong Dollar can push Gold lower, trade tension escalation can drive Gold higher, vague and bleak global economic outlook can affect gold as well.
Later in the day, we have Powell’s speech on IMF report, although most of the economic concerns were already mentioned earlier (priced in) any hawkish tone will favor dollar.
Technical aspect, Gold is seen rebounding off yearly trendline and supported at 1243.77+/-, with due respect that the support stay intact I will prefer to setup conditional short trade. I do not have crystal ball that it will definitely break but I am expecting current’s gold bull to be short lived as dollar’s now in temporary retracement before further strength continues. Numbers fit nicely with fibo that gives me +1 validity but that doesn’t mean I won’t be wrong too* as long as risk is being addressed.
Likewise I will not jump into a long trade now unless a strong reversal signal is established. ***(Anything similar to false breakout with confirmation)***
`Trade safe
Trade active:
Trades triggered way before Powell speaks.
This is when trade management comes into play.
Question is "Would you rather take $1 or lose $1"
This is when trade management comes into play.
Question is "Would you rather take $1 or lose $1"
Trade closed: target reached:
1st batch closed.
Revised outlook for further brearishness in Gold.
Potentially another 2 rounds of shorts.
Revised outlook for further brearishness in Gold.
Potentially another 2 rounds of shorts.
Comment:
I realize most people whom I have spoken to have this concept. "watch closely how much the price have fallen when they shorted or watch closely how much the price have rised when they long"
Base on my experience, that would not be ideal as you will get devoured by your own perception, and that as a trader is dangerous. (alot other explanations to this but its too long to go into details)
What I would suggest is this : watch out for degree of strength during a fall and degree of weakening during a climb. These will yield a better outcome.
Base on my experience, that would not be ideal as you will get devoured by your own perception, and that as a trader is dangerous. (alot other explanations to this but its too long to go into details)
What I would suggest is this : watch out for degree of strength during a fall and degree of weakening during a climb. These will yield a better outcome.
Comment:
I am seeing some signs of reversal. Counter trend entries are possible but its not my trading style for such short frame yield.
I will repost when I see another round of entry for gold short
I will repost when I see another round of entry for gold short
Also, taking into consideration of data release before Powell's conference, slight deviation from consensus data will not affect Dollar much since he already highlighted growing economy previously. House constructions will remain flat as well.
`Trade safe