chartwatchers

GOLD - Mother of all daily candles

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
7193 63 97
6 months ago
Someone asked a week ago what is the Marubozu. This is it.
Finally we got that hell of a bounce on Friday. Closing on daily maximum - as I predicted. We have the DCL in place (30.05.)
Big guys have completely played out retail traders. Why?
- We broke below 28.03 DCL on the 30th May. Everybody and his dog and his wife were shorting the market after Yellen's speech this Monday.
- We had a strong swing next day and a beartrap formed in the breakdown. After the swing is in place the price usually prints one or 2 green candles on the daily chart . But that doesn't happen. The trapped shorts seems were not enough. Market had to believe that the swing was false and we are heading to new lows. We could hear in the news that gold             is short, Goldman advised gold             to short etc. So banks had the time to pick a long position while retail traders were opening short positions. Of course that they knew that the data is horrible. The only thing they had to do didn't let the price pop : " Make them believe and let them short." The reason for divergence between gold             and GDX             was smartmoney positioning in GDX             longs on 02.06. Also the reason that Draghi was neutral because he got the note no need to strengthen the Euro             before Brexit poll : US jobs data will do that work...
Though I was right I didn't go long heavily before the data because it was too risky.

So now we see that gold             price is heavily determined by the dollar. It's very important to watch the news affecting the dollar:
- June 14-15th FOMC rate hike decision
- 23th June Brexit poll.


Beacuse of the elections FED might not have any other chance to do the hike so I still think we might have it in June. If this is the case Yellen will prepeare the market tomorrow... We see what Yellen says.
The Brexit poll must cause some kind of panic in the Euro             so whatever happens at the FED meeting the Euro             will have some kind of decline till June 23 and the dollar will rally. If the dollar rallies gold             could have a decline.
( I wish I could see the COT and the blees next Tuesday... That would be a great help. But we will see those datas on Friday only...)

So here is my plan for the next week:

As I'm watching the volume I don't think smartmoney was positioning on Friday's panic. It seems to me that bears were stopping their shorts and retail traders tried to enter long poistion. Now everybody thinks that June hike is out of the table. "We will rally to new highs." I don't think that's the situation. This decline from 1308 to 1200 seems too thin to me. Intermediate bottoms are not this simple. At the intermediate bottom I would like to see a volume above average (highlighted in green on the chart) This last DCL's volume was even small for a DCL.

So tomorrow I will try to sell my XAUUSD             positions into the Asian gold             rally. (Asia stayed out of the rally so tomorrow the rally will continue but I think the maximum will be around 10-15$.) If I'm right we will have a pop up to 1260-65 $. I'm not going to short just sell the longs... After that I will wait for Yellen's speech if she hits a hawkish tone I will reenter with some short position. I will post in the Metal trade 2 - or open the Metal trade 3.

Warning:
I set the neckline of the double bottom on the chart. If we break significantly above 1265$ the decline below 1200$ is in danger. We will see it next week. The chance for that is below 10%.

May the GOLD             be with us !
6 months ago
Comment: Asia is buying.
6 months ago
Comment: AFter the first 2 hours of buying profit taking has started.
If we come back above the 10 EM it's bullish for me again.
We will try to break new highs on the hourly.
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: Yellen's speech 5hrs 30 mins from now.
6 months ago
Comment: I'M quite sure that Yellen will be hawkish today. No reason to say anything else.
The March-April data is always weaker. They must raise the rates this summer.
I will be holding gold longs in the follwoing 5 hours, but I might close some positions before her speech, or during the speech.
I'm afraid she might call gold's daily cycle top today. It would mean that we head down to 1200 again.
6 months ago
Comment: I will post my trades real time in the Metal trade 2.
6 months ago
Comment: For the new players it's here:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/e1DDqkqF-Metal-trade-2/#tc371324
6 months ago
Comment: Somebody is lying.
In the long term they should move in the same direction...
snapshot
FXCrusher
6 months ago
So if i understand you good that means we should still see more bounce up to 1250-1260ish area and then on the speech again gold should go down, maybe even lower than that 1200 area?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO FXCrusher
6 months ago
Yes. Most probably not immediately. But during the dollar rally caused by the fear of the Brexit poll and the FOMC meeting I think gold will tank again in the next 3 weeks.
The next week will be very important to see if we have a panic selling under 1200 or not.
As I see the blog here and on the net everybody is getting bullish again. :)

+3 Reply
FXCrusher chartwatchers
6 months ago
Do you think it would still be ok to hold longs from 1240 area? tp1 lets say 1250...
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO FXCrusher
6 months ago
Absolutely possibe. Try to get rid of the longs in the Asian rally.
+2 Reply
FXCrusher chartwatchers
6 months ago
ok great thanks a lot... been watching your analysis must say i am impressed, till now everything on point! Hopefully plan will work
+1 Reply
robus
6 months ago
Thank you for all interesting insights every time on gold. my first target on daily is 1292 upper bollinger band with break of 1251. This my POV. I hope you drop some comments on it.
XAUUSD: In case yellen goes crazy and the brexit
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO robus
6 months ago
1265-1270 is the key for the 2nd bull phase. If we dont have a breakdown below 1200 the rally will be slow with lots of sideways consolidation as bulls and bears will be fighting for months.
I hope we break down.
+3 Reply
deltafox PRO
6 months ago
I'd love a deeper explanation on what happened exactly on Friday as a whole (Dollar, Gold, Miners and how this was executed etc). This had to be large scale pre-planned? i.e. instantaneously short Dollar/buy Gold (and where do miners fit in here?). Thus resulting in a short squeeze on Gold? (and perhaps hence why the overall volume was so low by the close vs candle size)?

25,841 was the size of the block on Gold which propelled it. Can we derive anything further from the COT or can you provide any further insight?
+1 Reply
Givingthelowdown
6 months ago
Thats a useful update...lets see what happens with the Asian rally, i feel this is key to whether Gold will carry on with intermediate cycle or go bullish
+1 Reply
al.calgary
6 months ago
Awesome! What is the effect of Brexit on Gold and US$?
+2 Reply
Amirio-dz
6 months ago
thank you for the analyze great job
+1 Reply
EET
6 months ago
thank you Arpi for updates!
+1 Reply
4XHunter
6 months ago
Thanks Arpi...Do you think it good to buy now in Asian Session...and if yes,...then till what level you suggest? or shall we just wait for the pullback...Plz advise.
+1 Reply
nnavarrete PRO
6 months ago
Gold is currently down to 1241. I am thankful I sold 60% of my JNUG on Friday. I expect it to be back up to around 1248 by US market open so we can continue with the uptrend for at least one more day. I have my JDST orders placed assuming we get lucky with another 2% up day like Friday. Good luck everyone. Arpi Thanks for all your advice - we are grateful to have you in our side!!
+1 Reply
vikingaskepp
6 months ago
Hi Arpi!

I've been following your work for a couple of weeks. Most of the technical is all greek to me, but following is like watching a show, listening to great music or enjoying great art.
It seems to me that you possess talent and and knowledge in greater amounts than many of your followers and getting everyone on board will be a very tiring job. My suggestion is, bugger that, and keep posting your ideas regardless, either people will learn more... or stop following.

Thanks for a wonderful cuople of weeks, and brilliance.

La Suede
+2 Reply
FXCrusher
6 months ago
We are expecting that yellens speech should be hawkish? What is your opinion on that?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO FXCrusher
6 months ago
She has to calm down markets : everything is fine with the economy etc.
This summer they must raise. If not June than July.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
I'm sure she will say : "We raise rates the following months."
She knew at her last speech on Friday the data is weak...
+1 Reply
FXCrusher chartwatchers
6 months ago
So we stick to plan and see the opportunity to short gold on speech?

+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO FXCrusher
6 months ago
If we pop up to 1260-65 I will sell all my longs and start to short.
+1 Reply
FXCrusher chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thanks for the update!
+1 Reply
saad2
6 months ago
If we head down to 1200, is that the end for the gold rally then?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO saad2
6 months ago
That would mean a 2-3-4 weeks decline.
+1 Reply
saad2 chartwatchers
6 months ago
oh dear. bad news for me.

I'm stuck with longs from 1265 from couple weeks ago. Would you say I should close them now, or wait it out in her speech, see if gold jumps?

I plan on putting sell stops incase gold falls.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO saad2
6 months ago
YOu still have 5 hrs. We might get 1260 today.
I would wait we are turning up now.
+1 Reply
saad2 chartwatchers
6 months ago
cheers. appreciate it. Good luck!
+1 Reply
snapshot

Reviewed the setup on a weekend and looks like 1263 is a figure to take into account
+1 Reply
sahilskhot
6 months ago
Hey Arpi, i am new to following you, would you be able to advise where to see your Metal Trade 2 indicator....?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO sahilskhot
6 months ago
It's a post not an indicator
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/e1DDqkqF-Metal-trade-2/#tc371324
+1 Reply
sandhusukhjit
6 months ago
Hi Arpi quick question. What do you mean when you say "If we come back above the 10 EM it's bullish for me again"
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO sandhusukhjit
6 months ago
This:
snapshot
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
This is bullish. I think we will attack 1250$ again
+1 Reply
cuak87 chartwatchers
6 months ago
Hi. I am trying to start following you. But I am lost between your posts :-). Which one I should follow?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO cuak87
6 months ago
PLan is unchanged. I have som longs from 1210. I'm waiting for a little more up to 1260-65.
ANd then I'm planning to go short sometimes this week. If we have a huge pop today at the speech I might go short immediately.
+1 Reply
curiozeta
6 months ago
What do you think the stockmarkets (especially Europe) will do tomorrow then? A steep decline after Yellen's speech? Also if you think there wil l be a rate hike in June,does that mean stock markets go down until FED meeting and afterwards? I value your opinions a lot, thanks a lot for sharing them with us.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO curiozeta
6 months ago
Europe is following US markets. US is always going up before FOMC meetings.
"Somebody" is always buying before that.
Yellen will calm down markets. She will say everything is OK, economy is strong. April data is often weaker.
She will be dovish. A hawkish speech would be worse for the markets now. Everybody would be frightened of recession is coming...
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Corrected: "She will be ***hawkish***. A ***dovish*** speech would be worse for the markets now. Everybody would be frightened of recession is coming...
+1 Reply
curiozeta chartwatchers
6 months ago
So, you don't expect a decline in the markets even if she is hawkish today and there'a rate hike in June? Thanks for the quick answer.
+1 Reply
nexuz curiozeta
6 months ago
If the FED wont hike in June they got no room left to do it before the elections and they definatly wont do it then. JesseL stated that nice in a post in one of the last gold charts from arpi
+1 Reply
curiozeta nexuz
6 months ago
Thanks, I'll check it out. Most commenters rule out June and even July and point to September. That was confusing me.
+1 Reply
nexuz curiozeta
6 months ago
well its also possible but in september a rate hike would bring up a good argument against yellen and the democrates. we will know the answer in about 45 minutes :)
+1 Reply
curiozeta nexuz
6 months ago
Indeed we will, but that's too late then isn't it :P
+1 Reply
nexuz curiozeta
6 months ago
lets see how it turns out :) maybe we got a spike in the opposite direction first so we can short/long. if not there will be an entry later
+1 Reply
curiozeta nexuz
6 months ago
Oki :) So no shorting yet, I was trying to figure out what to do, thanks :)
+1 Reply
nexuz curiozeta
6 months ago
got no clue either mate :D want to short the hell out of it but before it would be just gambling and with a gap and a high position it might kill the account. i learned that the hard way a couple of years ago :(
+1 Reply
curiozeta nexuz
6 months ago
Aww sorry to read that :( I'm in trouble with oil since Doha, and it just won't go down. It will kill my account, but this is gonna be a slow and painful death after 3 months :(
+1 Reply
Amirio-dz
6 months ago
Thank you for the update sir
+1 Reply
Benztownguy
6 months ago
Arpi, if i understand the general strategy for the metal and energy trades in a nutshell is the expectation with Yellen`s speach in a hawkish tone + Brexit weakening Euro = U$D goes up in June, meaning gold and oil prices will decrease. Right?
+1 Reply
mabaert PRO
6 months ago
Was hoping to take profit at 1252 before the speech and then see where it goes, but it goes pretty slow. Wonder if I should close all longs just before the speech
+1 Reply
nexuz mabaert
6 months ago
you could also trail your s/l on your longs. maybe with about 2usd space between - the problem is if we gap up or down your s/l may not hit right in the spot. but it would be better to save your earnings so far
+1 Reply
Givingthelowdown
6 months ago
Ok , so price not looking like its going close to 1260 in next hour, Yellen will send gold down a bit but have we reached top of the bounce??? we haven't hit upper trendilne, will Yellen kill the bounce stone dead or do we sit and wait for gold to rally and short in a couple of days once we hit the trendilne. I feel the trendilne is the signal to short. between 1255/1265...please what are your thoughts ?
+1 Reply
HarbeerS
6 months ago
A very informative chart
+1 Reply
ukraine
6 months ago
I am still in long or better close it not waiting for the news?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO ukraine
6 months ago
What news are you uwaiting for?
+1 Reply
ukraine chartwatchers
6 months ago
USD unit labor costs 1QF
+1 Reply
I´d say it is USD, should still have one more leg down
Reply
Krasen
6 months ago
EUR USD is the liar
Reply
fOREXeCHO PRO Krasen
6 months ago
Maybe not. Actually what happened recently reminded me that last time in March when FED implied that no hike in April, both the commodities and EURO & Yen surges crazily, and gold price held at high level. I think Gold will stay steadily at this level for a while or rises to 1260s for more room to head down. We will see.
Reply
fOREXeCHO PRO fOREXeCHO
6 months ago
Oil can be their best choice once again.
Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
Hi Arpi. When you say somebody is lying do you mean it literally, implying manipulation, or are you just saying that something strange is going on in the market which can't be explained?
Reply
fOREXeCHO PRO
6 months ago
I think the market may not be the short side, it can wave a bull flag instead and run to the downward trendline as high as 1263.
Reply
Trendhopper PRO
6 months ago
What fundamentals/indicators have convinced you its heading down? or is it just a hunch/guess based on experience? the trading community seems divided with many expecting sideways Bollinger or an upper trendline test/butterfly pattern to 1260's......with much respect I ask this..
Reply
MiDiGre PRO
6 months ago
Chart do you think it's time to go short EURUSD?
Reply
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