chartwatchers

GOLD - Mother of all daily candles

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
7201 63 100
Someone asked a week ago what is the Marubozu . This is it.
Finally we got that hell of a bounce on Friday. Closing on daily maximum - as I predicted. We have the DCL in place (30.05.)
Big guys have completely played out retail traders. Why?
- We broke below 28.03 DCL on the 30th May. Everybody and his dog and his wife were shorting the market after Yellen's speech this Monday.
- We had a strong swing next day and a beartrap formed in the breakdown. After the swing is in place the price usually prints one or 2 green candles on the daily chart . But that doesn't happen. The trapped shorts seems were not enough. Market had to believe that the swing was false and we are heading to new lows. We could hear in the news that gold             is short, Goldman advised gold             to short etc. So banks had the time to pick a long position while retail traders were opening short positions. Of course that they knew that the data is horrible. The only thing they had to do didn't let the price pop : " Make them believe and let them short." The reason for divergence between gold             and GDX             was smartmoney positioning in GDX             longs on 02.06. Also the reason that Draghi was neutral because he got the note no need to strengthen the Euro             before Brexit poll : US jobs data will do that work...
Though I was right I didn't go long heavily before the data because it was too risky.

So now we see that gold             price is heavily determined by the dollar. It's very important to watch the news affecting the dollar:
- June 14-15th FOMC rate hike decision
- 23th June Brexit poll.


Beacuse of the elections FED might not have any other chance to do the hike so I still think we might have it in June. If this is the case Yellen will prepeare the market tomorrow... We see what Yellen says.
The Brexit poll must cause some kind of panic in the Euro             so whatever happens at the FED meeting the Euro             will have some kind of decline till June 23 and the dollar will rally. If the dollar rallies gold             could have a decline.
( I wish I could see the COT and the blees next Tuesday... That would be a great help. But we will see those datas on Friday only...)

So here is my plan for the next week:

As I'm watching the volume I don't think smartmoney was positioning on Friday's panic. It seems to me that bears were stopping their shorts and retail traders tried to enter long poistion. Now everybody thinks that June hike is out of the table. "We will rally to new highs." I don't think that's the situation. This decline from 1308 to 1200 seems too thin to me. Intermediate bottoms are not this simple. At the intermediate bottom I would like to see a volume above average (highlighted in green on the chart) This last DCL's volume was even small for a DCL.

So tomorrow I will try to sell my XAUUSD             positions into the Asian gold             rally. (Asia stayed out of the rally so tomorrow the rally will continue but I think the maximum will be around 10-15$.) If I'm right we will have a pop up to 1260-65 $. I'm not going to short just sell the longs... After that I will wait for Yellen's speech if she hits a hawkish tone I will reenter with some short position. I will post in the Metal trade 2 - or open the Metal trade 3.

Warning:
I set the neckline of the double bottom on the chart. If we break significantly above 1265$ the decline below 1200$ is in danger. We will see it next week. The chance for that is below 10%.

May the GOLD             be with us !
Comment: Asia is buying.
Comment: AFter the first 2 hours of buying profit taking has started.
If we come back above the 10 EM it's bullish for me again.
We will try to break new highs on the hourly.
snapshot
Comment: Yellen's speech 5hrs 30 mins from now.
Comment: I'M quite sure that Yellen will be hawkish today. No reason to say anything else.
The March-April data is always weaker. They must raise the rates this summer.
I will be holding gold longs in the follwoing 5 hours, but I might close some positions before her speech, or during the speech.
I'm afraid she might call gold's daily cycle top today. It would mean that we head down to 1200 again.
Comment: I will post my trades real time in the Metal trade 2.
Comment: For the new players it's here:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/e1DDqkqF-Metal-trade-2/#tc371324
Comment: Somebody is lying.
In the long term they should move in the same direction...
snapshot
Chart do you think it's time to go short EURUSD?
Reply
What fundamentals/indicators have convinced you its heading down? or is it just a hunch/guess based on experience? the trading community seems divided with many expecting sideways Bollinger or an upper trendline test/butterfly pattern to 1260's......with much respect I ask this..
Reply
I think the market may not be the short side, it can wave a bull flag instead and run to the downward trendline as high as 1263.
Reply
Hi Arpi. When you say somebody is lying do you mean it literally, implying manipulation, or are you just saying that something strange is going on in the market which can't be explained?
Reply
EUR USD is the liar
Reply
Maybe not. Actually what happened recently reminded me that last time in March when FED implied that no hike in April, both the commodities and EURO & Yen surges crazily, and gold price held at high level. I think Gold will stay steadily at this level for a while or rises to 1260s for more room to head down. We will see.
Reply
fOREXeCHO fOREXeCHO
Oil can be their best choice once again.
Reply
I´d say it is USD, should still have one more leg down
Reply
I am still in long or better close it not waiting for the news?
+1 Reply
What news are you uwaiting for?
+1 Reply
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