XAU/USD | Close the gap, what next? (READ THE CAPTION)

Apr 20

As you can see in the 4H chart of Gold, it reached the high of 4891 last week and then closed at 4831, and today it opened at 4774 which is a rather big gap, and then it dropped to 4736 before bouncing back up and currently is being traded at 4820, which is above the April 20th NWOG C.E.. This huge gap is the result of the Strait of Hormuz close which happened during the weekend.

Now I expect Gold to close the entire NWOG before tonight's close, and I expect it to reach the 4850 level before dropping back down again, retesting the Supply Zone. If it drops back inside the April 20th NWOG, it must keep itself above the Consequent Encroachment of the gap which is at 4802 level. If it falls below this level, further drop to 4780 is possible, and losing the 4780 level will signal bearish for Gold.

Targets: 4835, 4825, 4815 and 4805, 4795 and 4785.

However, stabilizing above the April 20th NWOG C.E. could signal Gold going higher, first target will be at 4850 and if it breaks above this level strongly, we could see Gold reach 4900.
Any news regarding a peace treaty or the opening of Strait of Hormuz could send the Gold through the roof! And also results in a lower price of Oil.

Apr 21

Trade active

Well, as you can see, Gold managed to close the gap last night, but failed to reach the 4850 presumed price based on the previous analysis, it dropped after going above the 4H FVG Low and the April 20th NWOG High and reached all the targets. Currently is being traded at 4795, and below the NWOG C.E. at 4802.

If Gold stays below the NWOG C.E. and fail at going above it and stabilize there, further drop is likely and IF the news of Iranian team not going to Islam Abad for the 2nd phase of negotiation is true, Gold could easily drop to 4750, 4725, 4700 and 4676 levels respectively and Oil price will go higher.

However if Gold manages to somehow bounce back up from the April 20th NWOG Low and go above the C.E. at 4802 and stabilize there, it could go higher to retest the NWOG High, FVG High and the supply zone to reach the 4850 level.

Apr 22

Trade closed: target reached

As you can see in the 4H chart of Gold, it dropped all the way to 4668, meaning it hit all of our 4 targets and the final target was at 4676! After hitting the April 13th NWOG Low, it bounced back up and went as high as 4772, before dropping again and it's now being traded at 4758, in between the April 13th and April 20th NWOGs.

I expect Gold to retest the April 20th NWOG Low, and if it goes above the 4802 level and stabilizes there, further rise is expected to the 4831 level, and after if it goes through the NWOG, I expect it to go for the 4850 level resistance. A strong break above 4850 could signal a higher price for Gold at 4900.