chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - NFP speculations

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
7141 162 159
6 months ago
Overview
By this Fiday I was waiting for most of gold's bounce to be done, but it didn't happen. We are still fighting here at the 1210 level....
I still have a feeling that this time the bears should be toasted who shorted the market after Yellen's speech.
Gold's last 3 weeks decline has taken out all important levels except the 2016-02-16 DCL at 1191.
We broke below 1200 but there was no follow through. A beartrap was formed and those bears are still hoping down there... If 30.05. was the DCL we had a 45 days long daily cycle. That is quite long so in that case we need some recognizable bounce out of that low before heading down again... I find it almost impossible that the daily cycle topped on 01.06. - 2 days of bounce -and we are heading down to the next DCL.....

NFP data
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
April NFP data was weak but even with the weak data gold             couldn't rally more. Why? Because of timing...
It was simply to late in the intermediate cycle to rally on a weak number...
In 2012,2013,2015 the April data was weak and the May data was always better... In 2011,2014 the April data was very good (above 300.000) and the May data was weaker. So I might be wrong as I'm waiting for a weaker data than April. I think we will have the number around 150-170.000. If the data is weaker than April data gold             will have the bounce. But even if we have a 170.000 - that is the forecast - number would the market be happy? I don't think so. For the euphoria and for one more dollar pop - and a falling gold             - we would need a 200.000+ data today.

Draghi's speech

I'm still waiting for some kind of panic before the Brexit. ( Euro             weakening) Draghi is always trying to weaken the Euro             . Yesterday he was quite cautious. I think he knows the Brexit will make enough panic so he was not trying to talk down the Euro             . As I said if I was him I would have tried to talk it up a little bit. But he didn't do that ... Did he get the memo that the NFP data is weak? So the Euro             today might get a push up from the NFP data and there will be room for falling again before the Brexit vote?!

Miners
Gold             miners were bouncing yesterday. While gold             was falling. It's always interesting when these vehicles are diverging. Though the volume was low maybe smartmoney was positioning in the miners for todays gap up open after the weak NFP data?

These are the things what I see now. The picture is not crystal clear... But looking at the big picture I still think that we need a bounce before gold             could move to the downside... If it wasn't able to break this 1210 level last week, I doubt this small bounce will be enough to break it down for the next try.
So my suggestion is what you've seen in the Metal trade 2: a very small 3-5% long position.
I wouldn't go short from here before NFP.
I put the daily candles I'm waiting for today. Even if the data would be good : 170-180.000 I'm still waiting for that
we won't break below the 30.05. low or even if we break below 1200 marginally price will be pulled up almost immediately. So that's why it's really hard to put SL for today. You might get stopped out and price is running away into the good direction a few minutes later...
6 months ago
Comment: Divergence between miners and gold :
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: NFP data in 5 minutes ....
6 months ago
Comment: Somebody got the memo?!
6 months ago
Comment: I WANT TO SEE THOSE LIKES NOW!
:)
6 months ago
Comment: 38.000 new jobs.
This is a the worst data for months
Hold the longs now.
Beartrapped bears will be annihilated.
6 months ago
Comment: Once gold finds the direction it's going.
I don't think it will stop. We will have more green candles when USA opens and money flowing out of
stocks.
6 months ago
Comment: Someone got the memo before the data....
They were positioning at 8:28 EST... ANd that's why Draghi was cautious yesterday...
We might see 1250-60 next week.
When everybody gets super bullish we will short this rigged market !
6 months ago
Comment: Sit back guys and enjoy the show.
If we have the hourly maximum close in gold it will run much higher.
6 months ago
Comment: Who has time now just watch and memorize gold's movement on the hourly chart.
AFter these big breakouts price is not coming back. SMartmoney is holding and retail traders are trying to get out of shorts. ANd the craziest ones are trying to scalp.
6 months ago
Comment: I'M telling again most probably (90%) this just a bounce before a final decline which will break 1200.
So my suggestion that between 1245-1260 get rid of your longs.
If it happens today today if it happens next week Monday then sell on Monday.
Just close some profits....
6 months ago
Comment: Someone asked why did I say to memorize price action in gold.
If you are not in the huge move forget it on that day.
You can't scalp gold after these huge pops:
snapshot
6 months ago
Comment: It will end with a green candle near to the top.
I saw it many times...
6 months ago
Comment: So we closed on the daily maximum. I hope nobody tried to short it yesterday...
I will post a detailed report on gold, oil, EurUsd, NatGas for the next week this weekend.
6 months ago
Comment: First of all I would like to thank to Shinsky - a Canadian friend - who supported me to post this thought before NFP. So many people were freaking out - maybe beacuse going heavily leveraged for this bounce - that I was loosing faith in my own idea which was 100% successfull.

I was performing very well on my personal accounts in the last few years - that was the reason to come here and post and help to others - but I was not prepared for the traders who can't handle their account. I've learnt to overcome my personal sentiment ( fear, hope) these are the enemies of a good trader . If you want to trade with a success you have to overcome your personal barriers.
Even if I post the perfect idea you will not be able to trade it.

HUMANS ARE PROGRAMMED TO LOOSE IN TRADING.
Our aim is not to win. If you want to win you will loose.
Our aim is NOT TO LOOSE. If you don't loose the money will come to your account by itself.

I will prepare a script this weekend where I post some trading rules, the post types to save time.
I can refer to that link and help those who are asking the same questions. Then I can concentrate more on the charts not missing any important move.
4XHunter
6 months ago
Hey ChartWatchers...Thanks for the update man. Do u think XAUUSD will go in LONG and achieve 1230 Area? I have 2 Standard Lots LONG opened at 1220 and It may hurt me if the trade goes opposite way.
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO 4XHunter
6 months ago
That's what Im waiting for. Why don't you ease the position by closing half of it if we have a bounce before NFP?
+2 Reply
toothless
6 months ago
Fantastic analysis and summary. Much mahalos.
+2 Reply
Richmand808 PRO
6 months ago
You the man Arpi ! Thanks for letting us ride shotgun on your trade!
+3 Reply
Zahra
6 months ago
Thanks Arpi!!
+2 Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
Thanks Arpi. Really appreciate the time and effort. Holding my longs
+2 Reply
mabaert PRO
6 months ago
counting to the upside. Plan: close half position at 1220, other half at 1232. From 1232 setting a shorting order. Sounds reasonable?
+2 Reply
chartwatchers PRO mabaert
6 months ago
Just don't hurry with the shorts.
They made us wait so much that a lot will make the mistake to short it early.
If we have a weak data 1260 is not out of the table beginning of next week.
+3 Reply
mabaert PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Good to know! Did not count on a spike that high. In that view, it's still viable to TP at 1230? If it makes a spike up there, it's plaussible that it would spike back down before going to newer highs right?
+2 Reply
Mitasse chartwatchers
6 months ago
Will Janet be able to raise rates after this weak data?
+2 Reply
Sakakikunmakio
6 months ago
Hey chartwatchers... Your thoughts about nfp bad for gold or gud for gold?
+2 Reply
RoobaInvestment Sakakikunmakio
6 months ago
He already explained it, but so you can understand as well: Today NFP = Good for gold (80% probability).
+2 Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
hahah
+1 Reply
val_trader
6 months ago
Crossing my fingers
+2 Reply
SharkbaitAl
6 months ago
ARPI!!!!
+2 Reply
webmiztriz PRO
6 months ago
awesome... just awesome!
+5 Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
You're THE MAN! Now how long do we hold for???? LOL
+2 Reply
val_trader
6 months ago
ADDED LIKE ! How to ADD a KISS ? :)
+2 Reply
Notyour
6 months ago
Ok. Now you can tell us about ur sister working at Goldman Sachs .. ;)
+3 Reply
ice_holly01
6 months ago
NFP way below expectations
+2 Reply
LJT
6 months ago
like like like very much
+3 Reply
Singapore22
6 months ago
tp still at 1234?
+3 Reply
ofiratias4
6 months ago
thank arpi
I really appreciate you :>)
+2 Reply
AL_G
6 months ago
38k is this an error #

+2 Reply
Cheetsbaby84
6 months ago
Simply amazing Apri!
+4 Reply
AntonBilan
6 months ago
Can i enter long now? or its too late?
+1 Reply
kraken AntonBilan
6 months ago
you do not want to buy here anton. Stay patient, don't get caught with the herd. If you had a long in the 1200s to 1210s, good. If not, sit back and relax
+2 Reply
AntonBilan kraken
6 months ago
Thanks for yor advice, buddy!
+1 Reply
piaspa
6 months ago
Thank You Arpi, I had my doubts at times, but held my longs thanks to your confidance. Great stuff :)
+3 Reply
sir can i enter now long please tell me
+1 Reply
AlejandroCL7
6 months ago
You Genius!, Whats your intake on incoming ISM non manufacturing PMI due later today?
+2 Reply
archie123
6 months ago
Very impressive. You stuck with your great analysis and did not waiver.
+1 Reply
courageousone
6 months ago
Excellent and skillful maneuvering!
+2 Reply
curiozeta
6 months ago
You really are a genious. I could only enter a very small amount, cause I'm in trouble with oil. I wish I discovered you before I got trapped in oil short. Please can you update the oil chart as well, are you still waiting for that downward correction? I am stuck with sells at 40s (doha trap). Thank you reall much. Your work is much appreciated.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO curiozeta
6 months ago
We might be entering into a decline to 42$ So maybe you can get out with small loss.
+1 Reply
curiozeta chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thanks for the answer. I'm waiting for that decline you mentioned in your oil chart and I'm not going long from these levels. Also, frequently checking it for your updates :)
+2 Reply
shinsky
6 months ago
Patience is the key people. Let's not forget to thank Apri and his awesome analysis!
+9 Reply
Freeman2277
6 months ago
Very very impressive! Thank you!
+1 Reply
ofiratias4
6 months ago
i have no place enough for this candle on my screen;)
+1 Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
We're having trouble getting past the 161.8 extension of the first 2 waves ( a normalwave 3). But if Arpi's right, and who am I to contradict, it's just a matter of time.
+1 Reply
Gibster
6 months ago
Fantastic Arpi, bang on again!
+1 Reply
Trendhopper PRO
6 months ago
I'm watching, I can't trade right now anyway, baby with tonalities, mum has collapsed with gastroenteritis...i have no focus at this moment...it is incredible to see the market swing so fast
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Trendhopper
6 months ago
Family first. There will be much better possibilities soon...
+1 Reply
Trendhopper PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thanks Arpi/Chartwatchers...your analysis is quite incredible and you seem like a nice fella as well..
+1 Reply
xiiimik
6 months ago
Can't quite understand market reaction here. US unemployment is the lowest since many years. So you can not create too many jobs, since literally everybody is working. That 4.7% unemployment rate is "a natural unemployment rate". Thus US economy in good conditions in my opinion. This low unemployment rate will cause inflation. In order to reduce inflation, FED should increase rate.
But market reaction is different. Please, anybody, explain why. Do you also think that the rate hike is still possible?
+1 Reply
shinsky xiiimik
6 months ago
Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD
+1 Reply
xiiimik shinsky
6 months ago
But my point is that everybody is working now, (low unemployment rate). How is it possible to create more additional jobs?
+1 Reply
AL_G xiiimik
6 months ago
everyone is working but part time with 2 jobs so jobs are filling and unemployment is low.
but whats hurting this is the min. wage increase
+1 Reply
Trendhopper PRO xiiimik
6 months ago
I think the bounce is more related to fed rate hike which was priced in after Yellen speech, now thats off the table from these job numbers, so no rate hike = Gold up, there shouldn't be any reaction after Yellen next speech on Monday, cos ifs she talks economy up, the market won't buy the spin
+1 Reply
DMK8680 xiiimik
6 months ago
Labor participation is as low as it's been in nearly 40 years and median household income has decreased $4k in inflation adjusted dollars over the past 8 years.

U6 - the unemployment rate that really matters is at 9.7%.

Don't believe fake stats.
+2 Reply
babak_eng xiiimik
6 months ago
I want to add something to this Unemployement data. For somebody to be considered unemployed is somebody that get unemployement check for a period of time for instance here in canada its between 6 to 12 months period. Now after that period if the same person still unemployed they are not gone count him anymore. This means we have many people that after they were lay off and they were not able to find job anymore are not in this unemployement bracket anymore. This explains the reason. I hope it helps
+1 Reply
xiiimik babak_eng
6 months ago
Thanks!
+1 Reply
Trendhopper PRO
6 months ago
Is correction to 1150 now off the table...I assume as long as it doesn't go higher than 61.8 fib 1255 then correction is still on at some stage
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Trendhopper
6 months ago
THis is just a 4-5 days bounce.
Will be short but enough convincing to get every retail trader on the bull ship.
PLan is unchanged: we will short gold in 2 weeks.
+11 Reply
saint_athur chartwatchers
6 months ago
Possible to test 1283?
+1 Reply
MariapiaScopesiCalo PRO chartwatchers
6 months ago
Arpi, I want to congratulate with you, you Genius, great work! and great man!
+2 Reply
gibbsrc
6 months ago
Great work. This helped me trade a risk reversal option pair on ABX. Question: You think the next DCL will break 1200. How do you figure out how long this will take?? Looks like another 45 days to me.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO gibbsrc
6 months ago
The last few daily cycles were only 20-25 days.
This one doesn't need to be 45 days. 20-23 days will be enough.
That's around 1 month fits into the big picture.
+2 Reply
shero
6 months ago
Brilliant Arpi ... Really Brilliant
+3 Reply
AL_G shero
6 months ago
this guy is killing it every-single-damn-time. i doubted him when the market was 2040 and declining, he said were going to 2095 on s&p, i said ur krazy no way well 3 weeks later were hit 2105 lol its like hes a fortune teller
+4 Reply
Marvin AL_G
6 months ago
Don't shout it man, some hedge fund will snap him up and then it's bye bye baby.
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO Marvin
6 months ago
Robin Hood is not for sale.
:)
+22 Reply
toothless chartwatchers
6 months ago
Been following your advice every step and learning in the process. Would have lost EVERYTHING had I not closed DUST like you advised. Thank you very much! Mahalos from Hawaii (yes, I wake up in the middle of the night to follow your posts). :)
+2 Reply
Teflonjohn907 toothless
6 months ago
same here....in Alaska
+2 Reply
Marvin chartwatchers
6 months ago
LOL. Excellent!
+2 Reply
normasaz12 chartwatchers
6 months ago
Agree :)
+1 Reply
chasingziyou
6 months ago
Should I buy NUGT and get rid of my DUST?
+1 Reply
ice_holly01 chasingziyou
6 months ago
I'm in the same boat with you
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO ice_holly01
6 months ago
This is just a 4-5 days bounce today is the worst part for you.
I dont suggest entering NUGT because the miner decline is far not over yet.
Try not to stop out. This bounce will be history by the end of next week.
+1 Reply
ice_holly01 chartwatchers
6 months ago
Thank you so much!!!
+1 Reply
ice_holly01 chartwatchers
6 months ago
Waiting for miner down to 18 you mentioned before. Thanks.
+1 Reply
chasingziyou chartwatchers
6 months ago
THANKS. I sold my DUST and bought some NUGT and sold it too, Now I got half of the loss back. Will seek to day trade for these days and reenter for DUST.
What is your predicted entry/exit price and day for DUST and NUGT? Now the gold reaches 1240, I wonder this would stay here for a while. If it breaks up it will go 1260, if it breaks down it will then go 1200 again.
+1 Reply
nnavarrete PRO
6 months ago
Hey Arpi!! thanks so much! You were right once more! let us know if we should go short sometime next week or if this was the end of the bear. Best Regards...
+1 Reply
Mikemaycon PRO
6 months ago
I have been folowing youre plans and youre constant uppdate on the gold,. and i got to say , WOW. You are doing a really good job!
+1 Reply
saint_athur
6 months ago
Arpi, you rock mann. I still hold my short position 1304. And long 1206 running profit like hell!!
+1 Reply
AlphaDreams PRO
6 months ago
Pop!! Thanks for all of your expert analysis and direction. I'm learning while earning!
+1 Reply
AlphaDreams PRO AlphaDreams
6 months ago
BTW I bought NUGT and JNUG when you first indicated a pop was near. Up 28% and 23% today so far.
+1 Reply
AlphaDreams PRO AlphaDreams
6 months ago
Closed both NUGT and JNUG in prep for next week. Thanks again!
+1 Reply
curiousmind3861
6 months ago
Great call. I closed my eyes and went long JNUG yesterday. $$$$
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO curiousmind3861
6 months ago
+30%...
+1 Reply
curiousmind3861 chartwatchers
6 months ago
On top of that I shorted JDST at the same time, closed my position already, early as usual, but don't want to be too greedy. profit is profit.
+1 Reply
XTAL.ball
6 months ago
Thank you for telling us not to buy DUST on Thursday!
+2 Reply
chasingziyou XTAL.ball
6 months ago
I noticed that message too late. Now I got burned badly. :(
+1 Reply
ja.piotr.bor chasingziyou
6 months ago
Me too see this too late, but still bought some mining company's at the open NYSE, little profit - still a profit.
+1 Reply
Marvin
6 months ago
YES! Finally cracked the 161.8. Another surge!
+1 Reply
isaac312 PRO
6 months ago
thank you Arpi! I bought Nugt call from a week before and today was expirations. Recover all of my loss and make profit not :)
+1 Reply
saad2
6 months ago
A few questions arpi..

What is your analysis about price going down again to 1200 level? I know the data was a huge miss but I'm not sure how much heed fed will pay for a possible JULY hike. June will tell us.

What do you mean memorize gold's movement on hourly chart?

I'm expecting a price move upto 1250 but 1260 looks ambitious. I hope we reach 1260, would set up nicely for short positions.
+1 Reply
investment6300
6 months ago
Apri, having some stock in gold mines like ABX, ELD YRI, when would you sell thinking medium term if gold is to fall (was this independent on FED hike or stall). Your graphs indicate price will go down to new lows after break out if I understand it correct. Looking at goldminiers lag to AU other miners follow, one other snag is stock ABX, ELD YRI, is in CAD haha
+1 Reply
XTAL.ball
6 months ago
Given the terrible NFP data, are we still going to have a rate hike in June????
+1 Reply
Staxs XTAL.ball
6 months ago
I dont think its clear yet.... this is one data point be it a strong one. The FED only threw a June hike out to the markets to test the water, a delay looks more likely
+1 Reply
Trendhopper PRO Staxs
6 months ago
here in Great Britain the Bank Of England have been talking about a rate hike for the past 7 years, they always talk about one because they want people to pay down the mortgages so its all psychological, reality is that rate hikes would finish off the banks, so there won't be any, Japan is the model we are following
+1 Reply
courageousone Trendhopper
6 months ago
Or, perhaps they keep talking about raising interest rates to sucker people to take on more debt and then they lower the boom.
+1 Reply
nikkki courageousone
6 months ago
Thank you Arpi. When should i close my long positions? 1260?
+1 Reply
chartwatchers PRO nikkki
6 months ago