Overview By this Fiday I was waiting for most of gold's bounce to be done, but it didn't happen. We are still fighting here at the 1210 level.... I still have a feeling that this time the bears should be toasted who shorted the market after Yellen's speech. Gold's last 3 weeks decline has taken out all important levels except the 2016-02-16 DCL at 1191. We broke below 1200 but there was no follow through. A beartrap was formed and those bears are still hoping down there... If 30.05. was the DCL we had a 45 days long daily cycle. That is quite long so in that case we need some recognizable bounce out of that low before heading down again... I find it almost impossible that the daily cycle topped on 01.06. - 2 days of bounce -and we are heading down to the next DCL.....
NFP data tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls April NFP data was weak but even with the weak data gold couldn't rally more. Why? Because of timing... It was simply to late in the intermediate cycle to rally on a weak number... In 2012,2013,2015 the April data was weak and the May data was always better... In 2011,2014 the April data was very good (above 300.000) and the May data was weaker. So I might be wrong as I'm waiting for a weaker data than April. I think we will have the number around 150-170.000. If the data is weaker than April data gold will have the bounce. But even if we have a 170.000 - that is the forecast - number would the market be happy? I don't think so. For the euphoria and for one more dollar pop - and a falling gold - we would need a 200.000+ data today.
Draghi's speech
I'm still waiting for some kind of panic before the Brexit. (Euro weakening) Draghi is always trying to weaken the Euro. Yesterday he was quite cautious. I think he knows the Brexit will make enough panic so he was not trying to talk down the Euro. As I said if I was him I would have tried to talk it up a little bit. But he didn't do that ... Did he get the memo that the NFP data is weak? So the Euro today might get a push up from the NFP data and there will be room for falling again before the Brexit vote?!
Miners Gold miners were bouncing yesterday. While gold was falling. It's always interesting when these vehicles are diverging. Though the volume was low maybe smartmoney was positioning in the miners for todays gap up open after the weak NFP data?
These are the things what I see now. The picture is not crystal clear... But looking at the big picture I still think that we need a bounce before gold could move to the downside... If it wasn't able to break this 1210 level last week, I doubt this small bounce will be enough to break it down for the next try. So my suggestion is what you've seen in the Metal trade 2: a very small 3-5% long position. I wouldn't go short from here before NFP. I put the daily candles I'm waiting for today. Even if the data would be good : 170-180.000 I'm still waiting for that we won't break below the 30.05. low or even if we break below 1200 marginally price will be pulled up almost immediately. So that's why it's really hard to put SL for today. You might get stopped out and price is running away into the good direction a few minutes later...
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Divergence between miners and gold :
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NFP data in 5 minutes ....
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Somebody got the memo?!
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I WANT TO SEE THOSE LIKES NOW! :)
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38.000 new jobs. This is a the worst data for months Hold the longs now. Beartrapped bears will be annihilated.
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Once gold finds the direction it's going. I don't think it will stop. We will have more green candles when USA opens and money flowing out of stocks.
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Someone got the memo before the data.... They were positioning at 8:28 EST... ANd that's why Draghi was cautious yesterday... We might see 1250-60 next week. When everybody gets super bullish we will short this rigged market !
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Sit back guys and enjoy the show. If we have the hourly maximum close in gold it will run much higher.
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Who has time now just watch and memorize gold's movement on the hourly chart. AFter these big breakouts price is not coming back. SMartmoney is holding and retail traders are trying to get out of shorts. ANd the craziest ones are trying to scalp.
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I'M telling again most probably (90%) this just a bounce before a final decline which will break 1200. So my suggestion that between 1245-1260 get rid of your longs. If it happens today today if it happens next week Monday then sell on Monday. Just close some profits....
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Someone asked why did I say to memorize price action in gold. If you are not in the huge move forget it on that day. You can't scalp gold after these huge pops:
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It will end with a green candle near to the top. I saw it many times...
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So we closed on the daily maximum. I hope nobody tried to short it yesterday... I will post a detailed report on gold, oil, EurUsd, NatGas for the next week this weekend.
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First of all I would like to thank to Shinsky - a Canadian friend - who supported me to post this thought before NFP. So many people were freaking out - maybe beacuse going heavily leveraged for this bounce - that I was loosing faith in my own idea which was 100% successfull.
I was performing very well on my personal accounts in the last few years - that was the reason to come here and post and help to others - but I was not prepared for the traders who can't handle their account. I've learnt to overcome my personal sentiment ( fear, hope) these are the enemies of a good trader . If you want to trade with a success you have to overcome your personal barriers. Even if I post the perfect idea you will not be able to trade it.
HUMANS ARE PROGRAMMED TO LOOSE IN TRADING. Our aim is not to win. If you want to win you will loose. Our aim is NOT TO LOOSE. If you don't loose the money will come to your account by itself.
I will prepare a script this weekend where I post some trading rules, the post types to save time. I can refer to that link and help those who are asking the same questions. Then I can concentrate more on the charts not missing any important move.
Comments
shinsky
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Patience is the key people. Let's not forget to thank Apri and his awesome analysis!
webmiztriz
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awesome... just awesome!
Cheetsbaby84
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Simply amazing Apri!
shero
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Brilliant Arpi ... Really Brilliant
AL_G2
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this guy is killing it every-single-damn-time. i doubted him when the market was 2040 and declining, he said were going to 2095 on s&p, i said ur krazy no way well 3 weeks later were hit 2105 lol its like hes a fortune teller
Marvin
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Don't shout it man, some hedge fund will snap him up and then it's bye bye baby.
chartwatchers
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Robin Hood is not for sale.
:)
toothless
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Been following your advice every step and learning in the process. Would have lost EVERYTHING had I not closed DUST like you advised. Thank you very much! Mahalos from Hawaii (yes, I wake up in the middle of the night to follow your posts). :)