XAU/USD – Distribution at the Top, Sell on Rallies Market Contex

After a strong bullish impulse, Gold is now showing clear signs of exhaustion near the upper liquidity zone. Price failed to sustain above the recent high and has started to rotate lower, suggesting a distribution phase rather than continuation.

From a macro perspective, although expectations around Fed policy remain mixed, short-term positioning looks crowded on the buy side, increasing the probability of a corrective move to rebalance liquidity.

Technical Structure (M30–H1)

Price rejected sharply from the 4,348 supply / liquidity zone

A lower high has formed under descending trendline resistance

Market is trading below key intraday structure, signaling bearish pressure

Current price action favors a sell-the-rally approach

Trading Plan – MMF Style

Primary Scenario – SELL Continuation

Preferred SELL zone: 4,300 – 4,306

Confirmation: bearish rejection / weak bullish momentum

Targets:
TP1: 4,281
TP2: 4,269
TP3: 4,248

Extended target: 4,219 (major demand + channel support)

Invalidation

A clean break and hold above 4,348 would invalidate the short-term bearish bias.

In that case, stand aside and wait for new structure confirmation.

MMF Perspective

At premium levels, risk favors patience over chasing buys.
The focus now is on capital protection and selling rallies, waiting for price to reach deeper demand zones before considering any new bullish setups.

Bias today: Bearish below 4,348 – Sell rallies, manage risk strictly.