When War Escalates, Commodities Respond

Feb 28

History shows one consistent pattern:
When geopolitical tensions escalate, capital rotates into hard assets.

Not out of emotion.
Out of protection.

Let’s break down what price is actually telling us.

Gold - Structure Supports the Narrative

Gold has been overall bullish, trading within a rising broadening wedge pattern.

This week, price broke above the last minor high marked in red.

As long as bulls hold above this breakout level, the path of least resistance remains upward.

📍 First target: $5,600
📍 Second target: $6,000

Momentum + structure + macro backdrop are currently aligned.

Oil - Early Signs of Rotation

Oil recently rejected the lower bound of its falling channel.

Last week, price also broke above the last minor low marked in red.

This opens the door for continuation toward the upper bound of the channel.

However, for a true long-term bullish shift, something bigger is required.

A break above the last major high marked in blue near $80.

If that level gives way, the structure changes significantly.

📍 Medium-term target: $100
📍 Extended target: $120

Until then, oil remains in a broader corrective structure.

The question now is:
Are we at the beginning of a commodity expansion phase…
or just witnessing short-term volatility?

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.

📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.

Good luck! 🍀

All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr

Mar 2

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