XAU/USD 23 September 2025 Intraday Analysis

80
H4 Analysis:

-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.

As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs. This is continuing.

As per my analysis of yesterday, dated 22 September 2025, whereby I mentioned price could potentially continue to print higher-highs. This is how price printed, showing little to no signs of pullback phase initiation.

Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a horizontal blue dotted line.

Intraday Expectation:

Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation, price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,780,515.

Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.

Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.

Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.

H4 Chart: snapshot

M15 Analysis:

-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.

Price has continued with its bullish trajectory, printing all-time-highs.

Although price has printed a number of bearish CHoCH's, I will apply discretion and not classify them as such due to the insignificance of the pullback relative to recent price action.

Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.

Intraday Expectation:

Await for price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.

Note:

Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.

Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.

M15 Chart: snapshot

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