Scenario analysis is important as a trader.
By thinking out scenarios, you can fit price action to the different ones and see which one plays out best according to the set scenarios.
Next FOMC is Dec 13th. Ok, good.
Now; since I am a gold bull, but I also see price want to probably also want to backtest the triangle breakout, at the same time make a yearly higher high and behave techincally correct? How to fit all these into one scenario?
Well, then price should first bounce now at support breakout zone first and make a yearly higher high to fit the picture of a continuation of the bullmarket. Also, to make the cycle right translated would be nice since coming out of ICL.
Second, price may then go down until December on the "sentiment" expectations of a new rate hike approaching to backtest triangle outer edge. After rate hike, price should rally on relief into first part of 2018, according to seasonal factors. That would fit everything. Lets see now.
By thinking out scenarios, you can fit price action to the different ones and see which one plays out best according to the set scenarios.
Next FOMC is Dec 13th. Ok, good.
Now; since I am a gold bull, but I also see price want to probably also want to backtest the triangle breakout, at the same time make a yearly higher high and behave techincally correct? How to fit all these into one scenario?
Well, then price should first bounce now at support breakout zone first and make a yearly higher high to fit the picture of a continuation of the bullmarket. Also, to make the cycle right translated would be nice since coming out of ICL.
Second, price may then go down until December on the "sentiment" expectations of a new rate hike approaching to backtest triangle outer edge. After rate hike, price should rally on relief into first part of 2018, according to seasonal factors. That would fit everything. Lets see now.
Comment:
I have reworked with more exact angles and levels the idea.
The whole movement structure is similar as I just made a sketch, but the levels differ quite a lot.
The whole movement structure is similar as I just made a sketch, but the levels differ quite a lot.
Comment:
Next week the target is to reclaim the 1310-area. If price can do that, we can move toward 1377.
Look for 1277 on the downside for a potential spike early week, but we are not sure we get this.