Scenario analysis is important as a trader. By thinking out scenarios, you can fit price action to the different ones and see which one plays out best according to the set scenarios. Next FOMC is Dec 13th. Ok, good. Now; since I am a gold bull, but I also see price want to probably also want to backtest the triangle breakout, at the same time make a yearly higher high and behave techincally correct? How to fit all these into one scenario? Well, then price should first bounce now at support breakout zone first and make a yearly higher high to fit the picture of a continuation of the bullmarket. Also, to make the cycle right translated would be nice since coming out of ICL. Second, price may then go down until December on the "sentiment" expectations of a new rate hike approaching to backtest triangle outer edge. After rate hike, price should rally on relief into first part of 2018, according to seasonal factors. That would fit everything. Lets see now.
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Strong weekly support holding. Next week the target is to reclaim the 1310-area. If price can do that, we can move toward 1377. Look for 1277 on the downside for a potential spike early week, but we are not sure we get this.
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I have reworked with more exact angles and levels the idea. The whole movement structure is similar as I just made a sketch, but the levels differ quite a lot.
I don't know why but my senses tell me this is what we gonna get.. because when you were assuming the run to 1510 would be in one step (nothing wrong in gold) i was like "but the dxy should bounce back at least once before end of 2017.. non stop gold run to 1500 does not align with this. but this seems very logical.
dsankie21
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What are you currently thinking the probability of getting to 1280 range in gold is currently?
ARGOS1
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Lightning bolt pattern? AB=CD. AB=From 07-07 to 09-09. I assume Sep 21 low. Gives about 1444 November. Thoughts?