graham.edwards84

XAUUSD IDEA - Not a positive outlook IMO

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
390 4 9
I wanted so badly for Gold             to beat the dollar and really rally this fall. Sadly I have changed my stance with what I believe is growing evidence of a strengthening US Dollar             . I've been studying many currency charts and one can see a turning point in most for the Greenback, at least in the short term. Long term outlook might be a different story and I get a sense that the "R" word could be a year or so away which would really aid Gold's upward momentum .

Maybe the upcoming Presidential Election will bolster the outlook for Gold             or perhaps an International event. But when the US Dollar             is growing stronger and healthier Gold             gets a full blown flu and geopolitical events are only a spoon full of medicine for the precious metal.
dchua1969
2 months ago
nice chart, my 1 hour chart shows similar channel pattern as well. last candlestick shows a bearish read bar and it has also breached the 21ema line. USD on the other hand has breakout from the triangle from the day chart and 1hr chart shows it has cross the 21ema, which is a bullish sign. Also, Jim Rogers , the commodity guru had said that gold is still not cheap enough and he is not buying. I take that as a possibility it has not come down to the level he is looking at .

My 2cents on the forthcoming election is the stock market has to show positive signs of marginal increase to boost confidence and that means USD will climb from here slowly to the 100 mark or higher. Then again, nobody can predict the market with precise accuracy so take it with a pinch of salt. Best of luck , buddy!
+1 Reply
graham.edwards84 dchua1969
2 months ago
Thanks for your comments. I also include the volume metrics as to me it really is a telling sign of a growing disenchantment with the precious metals markets. I sometimes wonder if we're all just being played. There's no end of bullish rhetoric on Seeking Alpha about this and that pushing up bullion. It's the perfect gold storm... wedding season in India... blah blah blah... best months for gold are September October... I mean that comment in itself is just simply not true. I took the time to go back and look at the best months for gold and more often than not it's June July, then December January... so what gives with all these analysts making such bold statements. It's some kind of annual industry conspiracy no doubt...

I'm sure I'm not the only one who noticed that last week while Gold futures were climbing higher, junior minors were tanking? Huh?
+1 Reply
PooyaSalehipour
2 months ago
very nice and logic chart. but, one things you miss is break 1313 on the long term trendline. even, it could be break the 1300 with strong sell candle.
+1 Reply
graham.edwards84 PooyaSalehipour
2 months ago
Yes that is a very likely scenario also depending on the upward momentum of DXY.
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