The track of the market appeared in the weekly chart:
The market broke out the orange downward trendline and confirmed the breakout true and valid.
The market firstly tested the greed downward trendline after the breakout of the orange downward trendline.
The market secondly tested the green downward trendline again after the confirmation of breakout.
If the market break out the green downward trendline,the upward rise space will be opened.
The price moved with some important events as follows:
1.The price droped from 1337 to 1122 after Trump won the US election on November 9,2016.
2.The price rallied from 1122 to 1220 and ended after Trump sworn in as president of USA on January 20,2017.100usd rose in one month.
3.The price began to drop from 1220 on January 23,2017 to 1180 on January 27,2017.The retracement range was 40usd.
4.The price rallied again from 1180 on January 27 to 1264 on February 27. 80usd rose in a total month.
5.The price dropped form 1260 to 1195 which began on Febuary 27,2017 and ended at March 10,2017.Meanwhile the 1195 is the 0.5 retracement of 1122-1260.70usd declined in half month.
6.The price rallid from 1195 to 1295 after the Fed rate hike on March 13,2017.100usd rose in a total month.
In summary to above,the price may rise again after a retracement.
Where will the price begin to rise again?
It may locate at 1218-1233 levels and reasons are as follows:
1.The 0.382RET of the rally from 1122 to 1295 is 1230;
2.The good demand zone is at 1218-1233 levels in daily chart;
3.The upward trendline whice connected 1122 to 1295 may works at about 1450 levels.
Where is the ideal target?
1420-1460 may be very good and reasons are as follows:
1.The supply zone is at 1421-1445 levels;
2.The AB=CD pattern will complete at 1450 level;
3.The upper edge of the upward channel also works at this zone.
When will the target reach in high probability?
It should be completed before December this year because the Fed is likely to get rate hike in December.
According to the habit of the past two years,Fed will raise interest rates at the end of the year,then the price should arrive the target before raise inrerest rate, meanwhile rate hike expectation will lead to a retracement and the retracement is also in line with the technical side analysis.
So it is good to buy at 1218-1233 levels when price action gives signals in the PRZ.
SL:below 1195
TP:1420-1460
If the market breaks down the 1195,the long-term plan is invalid and the market will be likely to decline to 1148-1162 levels,the lower edge of the upward channel, which is also a good demand zone in daily chart.
Even if 1120-1130 zone is broken down,1060 level will be facing in high probability where the orange downward trendline and a good demand zone work,and then a bullish Gartley pattern will complete.
The market broke out the orange downward trendline and confirmed the breakout true and valid.
The market firstly tested the greed downward trendline after the breakout of the orange downward trendline.
The market secondly tested the green downward trendline again after the confirmation of breakout.
If the market break out the green downward trendline,the upward rise space will be opened.
The price moved with some important events as follows:
1.The price droped from 1337 to 1122 after Trump won the US election on November 9,2016.
2.The price rallied from 1122 to 1220 and ended after Trump sworn in as president of USA on January 20,2017.100usd rose in one month.
3.The price began to drop from 1220 on January 23,2017 to 1180 on January 27,2017.The retracement range was 40usd.
4.The price rallied again from 1180 on January 27 to 1264 on February 27. 80usd rose in a total month.
5.The price dropped form 1260 to 1195 which began on Febuary 27,2017 and ended at March 10,2017.Meanwhile the 1195 is the 0.5 retracement of 1122-1260.70usd declined in half month.
6.The price rallid from 1195 to 1295 after the Fed rate hike on March 13,2017.100usd rose in a total month.
In summary to above,the price may rise again after a retracement.
Where will the price begin to rise again?
It may locate at 1218-1233 levels and reasons are as follows:
1.The 0.382RET of the rally from 1122 to 1295 is 1230;
2.The good demand zone is at 1218-1233 levels in daily chart;
3.The upward trendline whice connected 1122 to 1295 may works at about 1450 levels.
Where is the ideal target?
1420-1460 may be very good and reasons are as follows:
1.The supply zone is at 1421-1445 levels;
2.The AB=CD pattern will complete at 1450 level;
3.The upper edge of the upward channel also works at this zone.
When will the target reach in high probability?
It should be completed before December this year because the Fed is likely to get rate hike in December.
According to the habit of the past two years,Fed will raise interest rates at the end of the year,then the price should arrive the target before raise inrerest rate, meanwhile rate hike expectation will lead to a retracement and the retracement is also in line with the technical side analysis.
So it is good to buy at 1218-1233 levels when price action gives signals in the PRZ.
SL:below 1195
TP:1420-1460
If the market breaks down the 1195,the long-term plan is invalid and the market will be likely to decline to 1148-1162 levels,the lower edge of the upward channel, which is also a good demand zone in daily chart.
Even if 1120-1130 zone is broken down,1060 level will be facing in high probability where the orange downward trendline and a good demand zone work,and then a bullish Gartley pattern will complete.
Trade active
Comment:
There is strong resistance at 1260-1270 zone.
It is very important whether the market can break out this zone.