First of all I would like to use the 2009.03. goldchart again because I still think the situation is quite similar. Bear market ended 2008.11. with a double bottom. 4 months of rally and an intermediate correction with 2 daily cycles.
I highlighted by an arrow where I think we are. 18.03. was a big up day. It was a FED day. The dollar had a big decline - just like this Friday .We had one more green day and the daily cycle topped at around 968 and the intermediate decline continued.
I'm waiting for the same thing on Monday or Tuesday. I think Yellen will hit a hawkish tone at the Monday speech: the dollar decline should be stopped. So most probably Yellen will trigger tomorrow a Daily cycle top in gold and gold will continue its intermediate decline below 1200. Based on this I will close most of the XAUUSD longs tomorrow... But I will not go short immediately. I will explain in the next chart why...
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I wait for a bounce up to 1155-60-65... Maybe a break of the upper trendline...
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Corrected: wait for a bounce up to ***1255-60-65***...
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Marvin
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Thanks Arpi. Fantastic that you provide us with your insight. You might want to ammen this: "I wait for a bounce up to 1155-60-65.." It should be 1255-60-65.
chartwatchers
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Corrected thanx
the_roggy
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I still see the 1155-60-65...
mmmp12
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If we finally drop to 11xx, (hopefully) in 2-3 weeks, will be the last chance to jump on it for so low price?
I know that you or anyone doesn't know it, but 1000 shouldn't be broken? I want to know, because I want this position to hold it for 1400-1500/oz, and don't know if I will be stopped or if it will have so much power. Because it seems to me that long term it will be bullish and should go to this numbers.
avento
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Arpi, thanks for sharing your brilliant analytics!
Let me suggest a couple of small improvements to the style of your ideas.
1) it could be more clear to read not overlayed price charts, but a kind of separated subwindows (which can be moved synchronously, as well). Tradingview do provides such opportunity.
2) it could be even more comfortable to compare Gold with reversed Dollar Index (formula: 1/DXY)
avento
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though, EURUSD almost repeats the reversed Dollar index
chartwatchers
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Yes that's why I posted the EurUSD when the news affecting the Euro. The NFP was affecting the dollar mainly.
keefer0
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Nice work CW. I'm looking to get back into DUST at a new 52 week low. Will begin to average in at those levels depending on how the market is reacting to Yellen.
Tenbears1979
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Thank you so much for the work you do! I have a design review meeting for a airport project at 12:30 pm so it looks like I'll need to short right before it. I agree with you.. "We must defend the dollar from the speculators..."
Givingthelowdown
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I think upper trendine is a signpost to short, its only broken it once by a few points and that was 'fake' manipulated.., I guess it all depends on price action tomorrow and volume of any bullish moves.