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Captain_Walker
Mar 31, 2021 11:11 PM

IS GOLD BACK? 

GoldOANDA

Description

Gold just did an important trend switch on the 2H time frame coming off what appears to be a double bottom at 1680. The switch is better seen on 15 min to 30 min time frames.

Normally the first pulse which this might be is followed by a minor correction before further movement in direction fo the switch. But strange things do happen.

This is a trend following situation, which means you get no targets, stop-losses or predictions. Why? Because nobody knows where how far a trend might go. I provide no other figures because this is not advice. If going long on Gold a safer situation will be in a 15 to 30 min trend.

Disclaimers: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Comments
q72syhwpqd
you think gold will hit 1740?
Captain_Walker
@q72syhwpqd, I don't do predictions on price, ever. Why? Because I am a true trend-follower. What does that mean? It means that trend is more important than price. I don't need to think about where price might reach. How? When the trend I'm following ends, the market informs me what it chooses as an end point - and then I'm out. On occasions I bail out of a trade where I decide I price action is going wrong.

I'm explaining this for the benefit of others who might read any of this. Win rates with trend-following strategies are low - for me about 40%.

But many traders cannot understand that it is about win rates in trend-following. Instead it is about the magnitude of a smaller percentage of wins, compared to aggregate of minimised losses for a majority. I've shown in another post recently, where magnitude of a win can be 26 times the risk of loss. That's something that will almost never be found in any other trading strategy - with the single exception of fractal-based techniques.

For the avoidance of adverse inferences, I am not promoting trend-following. Only about 20% of all traders are true trend-followers, from robust independent research. The reasons for that are obvious i.e. It is very difficult and fraught with risk.
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