Gold bulls have been unstoppable in the last few weeks. The price of gold has gained 13% to $1439.31 an ounce after a bearish correction that lasts through February and May 2019. The precious metal still has the potential to move substantially higher from the long-term perspective.
However, in this post, we will look at the recent rally in Gold and what the next few weeks has in store for the commodity through the Elliot Wave perspective.
The H4 chart above allows us to put XAUUSD “Gold” entire progress since May 2019 into Elliott Wave context. It looks like a textbook five-wave impulse pattern is forming, labeled i-ii-iii-iv-v. Wave “iii” is the longest wave, and its sub-waves are also clearly visible. The present and the recent pullback, which seems to be unfolding as a triangle pattern fits in the position of wave iv. The missing piece of the puzzle is wave v. Considering that it’s not a truncation, the fifth wave is supposed to exceed the top of wave iii. In terms of price, wave v’s initial targets lie near 1460/OZ, but $1500 per ounce is quite reasonable as well.
Gold Bears Are Not Back Off Yet On the other hand, gold traders should tread very carefully. According to Elliot Wave theory, a three-wave retracement in the opposite direction follows every impulse. Therefore, we can prepare for a notable correction in wave (b) once wave iv and v complete the recent uptrend in wave (a). If this count is correct, XAUUSD is still in an uptrend and aiming at a new high above wave iii’s top. However, a bearish reversal within the blue box is highly probable and can open the door for a ~50% sell-off towards the support near $1350 an ounce.
Nice chart, agree with 1500 short term target, also nicely lines up with 0.50 fib retracement from ATH to 2015 bottom. Have you go a longer term EW count ?
Veejahbee
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@Invest_Mat, Yes, 1500 lined up with the 50% fib area. I have done longer-term EW analysis on gold. Price is still correcting the bearish impulse that ended in 2015, so once the correction is completed, the next 2-4 years are for the bears.