XAUUSD/US Dollar - GOLD - Daily - TARGET REACHED @ 1290

Good call Tim, what level do you for entry shorte

I'm going to use fundamentals to stay away from shorting gold. I think with negative rates in Switzerland, that is a strong incentive to own gold in the medium term. I think the trend is up and I want to only find long-side technical setups.

Comment: The "highest low" was a "weekly highest low". It looks confusing on this daily chart.

Congrats Tim well done....

Here's what I added on the other chart on gold.

"Target Reached - I'll work on a new forecast from here. Do NOT go short, in my opinion that is not warranted here. I'm fundamentally bullish on Gold here for several reasons:
1. It is a new year and Gold has momentum to the upside on news that the SNB has cut rates to negative -0.75%. This will spur cash flow into gold.
2. There is a strong disconnect between central bank money printing and the price of gold, which in the long run is counter-intuitive. Markets often act disconnected long enough to make people think there is no connection between money printing and gold, but I think the correlation has been in a period of hibernation. Gold has a long way to go "up" to catch up to the money printing.
3. World economies have weakened substantially and gold used to be a spillover investment from the wealth being created in the upsurge as investors diversified to spread out there assets, but with the economies weakening, the marginal investment has been sold off to help portfolios survive. The weakness is gold has been just a confirmation that the global economy has been weak. The rally in gold will really take hold and move prices back to $1500 to $1800 to $2500/oz as the global economy stabilizes.
4. Find levels of support to buy GOLD. I'll be looking at price congestions, retracements and "gaps" and single-days for the market to hold. I'll also be looking at other "key levels" that I will publish from time to time.
Tim 10:20AM January 20th, 2015"

I agree with you about the fundament, but I think it will first drop down to 800 before resuming from hibernation. I can see no phisycal gold or silver shortages on the horizon. Infact this rally seems to be a paper only one due to heavy bullish divergences in the last months. Technical bulls FOMO entering. But it's too early. The Dollar Storm came upon us., and hasn't shown us what it can do. Commodities everything will drop dramatically against the dollar. Gold and Silver including. I think it is very good price to short Gold from here

How are wen not talking about supply and demand when concerning Gold or Silver?

Both are more of a commodity than a currency.

1) What is your view on the possible IHS there?
2) with this..are you still long/short?

Hi 2use,
1) IHS are simply trend down reversals into trend up, which is what is labeled here. They provide the same forecasts and signals.
2) I am still long. I would trade out of any extra positions here and look to re-establish those positions on any pullbacks or any sideways action, note the above comments about buying dips to any support levels, which there are many.

Hi Tim. Impressive analysis. I liked your recent BTC/USD analysis too - I'm happy to buy BTC at $124! Do you have any analysis of, or ideas / feelings about silver? Many thanks and best wishes, Nick

Hi Nick - I like silver too. I haven't done the extensive analysis on silver as I have on gold though. I've been buying physical silver coins with an eye towards doubling my money in the next 2-3 years. So, I am very optimistic about the outlook for silver prices.

Many thanks Tim - your comments much appreciated.

Thanks Tim for sharing, this is what i m looking on gold and silver.

They are both turning the corner - that's certainly how it looks. If they go a little higher and they will catch a lot of attention from other chartists.

Pullback is coming soon

Definitely a pull back is due anytime, but ill not short GC , I am with Tim that the trend has changed for both fundamental and TA reasons and ill only look for new entries on the long side.

Is this correct ? I'm trying to guess best time to buy Puts on TLT

TLT overbought vs 10 Year

It's hard to tell what you mean by "correct" but TLT is extended and due for either a major top or a major setback.

Time "mode" strategy

I'll do some work on it and see what I can find.

OK Thanks

I think it's worth a look, probably 40 days or so from a topping process just based on assumptions of what our Fed will do.

Double the thanx

bludolphin- Does this mean a new trend up or is this too steep to even be a trend?

Hi! i think!