Following up from my previous forecast looking for a rally to $1290 in XAUUSD.
It made it this morning.
Tim
Comments
bludolphin
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bludolphin- Does this mean a new trend up or is this too steep to even be a trend?
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Is this correct ? I'm trying to guess best time to buy Puts on TLT
QuantitativeExhaustion
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TLT overbought vs 10 Year
timwest
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It's hard to tell what you mean by "correct" but TLT is extended and due for either a major top or a major setback.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Time "mode" strategy
timwest
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I'll do some work on it and see what I can find.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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OK Thanks
I think it's worth a look, probably 40 days or so from a topping process just based on assumptions of what our Fed will do.
A-shot
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Double the thanx
timwest
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Here's what I added on the other chart on gold.
"Target Reached - I'll work on a new forecast from here. Do NOT go short, in my opinion that is not warranted here. I'm fundamentally bullish on Gold here for several reasons:
1. It is a new year and Gold has momentum to the upside on news that the SNB has cut rates to negative -0.75%. This will spur cash flow into gold.
2. There is a strong disconnect between central bank money printing and the price of gold, which in the long run is counter-intuitive. Markets often act disconnected long enough to make people think there is no connection between money printing and gold, but I think the correlation has been in a period of hibernation. Gold has a long way to go "up" to catch up to the money printing.
3. World economies have weakened substantially and gold used to be a spillover investment from the wealth being created in the upsurge as investors diversified to spread out there assets, but with the economies weakening, the marginal investment has been sold off to help portfolios survive. The weakness is gold has been just a confirmation that the global economy has been weak. The rally in gold will really take hold and move prices back to $1500 to $1800 to 2500/OZ as the global economy stabilizes.
4. Find levels of support to buy GOLD. I'll be looking at price congestions, retracements and "gaps" and single-days for the market to hold. I'll also be looking at other "key levels" that I will publish from time to time.
Tim 10:20AM January 20th, 2015"
Patladj.
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I agree with you about the fundament, but I think it will first drop down to 800 before resuming from hibernation. I can see no phisycal gold or silver shortages on the horizon. Infact this rally seems to be a paper only one due to heavy bullish divergences in the last months. Technical bulls FOMO entering. But it's too early. The Dollar Storm came upon us., and hasn't shown us what it can do. Commodities everything will drop dramatically against the dollar. Gold and Silver including. I think it is very good price to short Gold from here