Daily Timeframe: The shows that recent price action has been oscillating around a major daily swap level at 1182.0 for the past week and a half. Our team has come to a general consensus that Gold can move either way this week. A rally higher towards a daily supply area at 1238.1-1227.7 (seen within weekly supply at 1255.2-1226.1) is very possible, while a move lower is also feasible down towards daily support coming in at 1149.4 (lurking just above the aforementioned weekly decision-point ). Hopefully the 4hr timeframe will offer us more information.
4hr Timeframe: At the time of writing, ranging action is clearly present on the 4hr timeframe between 1211.3 and 1172.8. A break above (upper blue circle) could well see a prompt retest forcing the market north towards a 4hr supply area at 1244.5-1240.1. The reason we believe price can move thus high is simply because we believe that there is very little active supply left between 1212.1 and this 4hr supply area (depicted using a green arc pattern). Shorting from this 4hr supply area in our opinion is valid, but do remain vigilant to the possibility that this area may see a fakeout up to a daily Quasimodo looming just above at 1249.4 (see the ). Therefore, with this in mind, we are forced to only consider shorts (1239.5) with corresponding lower-timeframe confirmation.
However, In the event that selling interest enters the market sometime this week, and a break below the range is seen (lower blue circle), we feel that this will likely entice further selling down towards a nice-looking 4hr demand area coming in at 1142.6-1152.0 (encapsulates the aforementioned daily at 1149.4). Considering that this 4hr area has favorable higher-timeframe confluence, and also saw fantastic momentum north when the zone was initially formed, we are comfortable setting a pending buy order just above at 1152.8, with a stop-loss order placed just below the zone at 1141.8.
Current buy/sell levels:
• Buy orders: 1152.8, (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1141.8).
• Sell orders: 1239.5 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1245.4).