Trump’s tariff tax obsession may be somewhat comical, but it is creating substantial weakness in China’s currency. That’s because foreign and domestic investors are moving significant amounts of money out of Chinese risk markets and into dollar-denominated safe havens like T-bonds, gold , and the yen. on the other hand, US services growth slows to the weakest level since 2016. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing activity index fell to 53.7 from 55.1 the month before. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a reading of 55.5 for July. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. Growth in the U.S. services sectors decelerated in July to its weakest level in three years as trade worries weighed on business orders and the outlook for the overall economy, a private survey released on Monday showed. Slower growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, comes at a time that the U.S.-China trade war has been squeezing manufacturers.(New research will be published tomorrow)
Top Hedge fund comment
Morgan Stanley: If the trade war escalates, a recession will be here in 9 months
Morgan Stanley thinks a global recession will come if the trade war escalates through the U.S. raising tariffs to 25% “on all imports from China for 4-6 months.”
“As we view the risk of further escalation as high, the risks to the global outlook are decidedly skewed to the downside,” Morgan Stanley chief economist Chetan Ahya says.
China has promised to retaliate to new tariffs that President Donald Trump said will begin on Sept. 1.
ADVICE AND RECOMMENDATIONS
With gold’s impressive rally this summer, prices might be too “pricey” for some investors, which is why We advise buying cheaper precious metal alternatives like platinum and silver .
“Gold has had a great run over the last year, up 17%. It’s been a perfect storm of sorts for gold , especially on the interest-rate front. With long-term interest rates declining globally, gold has been an attractive alternative to debt,”
Gold is a great alternative to any kind of risk, including economic instability and geopolitical tensions, But, at these levels, gold is just too expensive.
“As an example, the 10-year German Bund now yields -0.44%. Investors now pay to invest in German government debt. The advantage of holding gold is that it is a country and government agnostic. Gold can sometimes be viewed by investors as a hedge against governments that might be fiscally/economically irresponsible,”
“Yes, the world has added more negative-yielding debt recently, and more will likely follow. But, $1500 gold , we feel, takes into account all of that and then some. One year ago, just prior to global yields falling, gold was trading closer to $1200,” LaForge wrote.
Platinum and silver offer much more advantageous hedge solutions to investors, added the bank.
“The two we recommend considering are platinum and silver . Both are historically quite cheap versus gold , and in our opinion, may offer more upside potential should gold keep grinding higher,”.
“The price of platinum has mostly traded above the price of gold , but that is not the case today. For those looking for an alternative to gold , we recommend consideration of platinum and silver ,”