XAUUSD (Gold) is currently in a post-liquidity reaction phase after a strong bearish expansion that pushed price into the 4500 liquidity zone. The market has completed a major downside move, and now we are seeing a temporary relief bounce, which is a common behavior after liquidity is taken.
At the moment, price is reacting from a key demand area, but this does NOT confirm a trend reversal. Instead, this bounce is likely to be a pullback into a high-probability sell zone (4600 – 4650), where smart money may begin distributing positions again.
Traders should understand that this is a trap zone. Many retail traders will interpret this bounce as a buying opportunity, but without proper structure shift, the overall bias remains bearish.
🔴 Primary Scenario (High Probability):
Relief bounce → rejection from supply → continuation to downside
If price rejects the 4600–4650 zone with confirmation (M5/M15), we can expect continuation toward lower levels.
🟡 Alternative Scenario:
If price breaks structure and holds above the supply zone, a short-term reversal or deeper correction may occur.
⚠️ Important:
This is NOT a chasing market. The best approach is to wait for confirmation, not react emotionally to the bounce.
This setup is based on price action, market structure, liquidity concepts, and smart money behavior.
📈 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance / Sell Zone: 4600 – 4650
Current Reaction Zone: 4500 area
Bearish Continuation Target: Below 4500 (if rejection confirms)
At the moment, price is reacting from a key demand area, but this does NOT confirm a trend reversal. Instead, this bounce is likely to be a pullback into a high-probability sell zone (4600 – 4650), where smart money may begin distributing positions again.
Traders should understand that this is a trap zone. Many retail traders will interpret this bounce as a buying opportunity, but without proper structure shift, the overall bias remains bearish.
🔴 Primary Scenario (High Probability):
Relief bounce → rejection from supply → continuation to downside
If price rejects the 4600–4650 zone with confirmation (M5/M15), we can expect continuation toward lower levels.
🟡 Alternative Scenario:
If price breaks structure and holds above the supply zone, a short-term reversal or deeper correction may occur.
⚠️ Important:
This is NOT a chasing market. The best approach is to wait for confirmation, not react emotionally to the bounce.
This setup is based on price action, market structure, liquidity concepts, and smart money behavior.
📈 KEY LEVELS TO WATCH
Resistance / Sell Zone: 4600 – 4650
Current Reaction Zone: 4500 area
Bearish Continuation Target: Below 4500 (if rejection confirms)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.