XAUUSD – Buy the Dip, Eyeing 4134

Jul 10

Gold is holding a relatively high price base after the previous strong rally, but in the short term it is now entering a technical correction phase to absorb buying pressure. On the chart, price is currently around 4102.81, with the main expected range between 4021- 4134. The current structure suggests that the most reasonable scenario is a pullback toward Turn 1 around 4088 first, or deeper toward Turn 2 around 4058, before resuming the main uptrend.

From a technical perspective, Turn 1 is the most important area for a scalping strategy because it is both a nearby support zone and a level that could reactivate buying interest if price responds well there. Based on the chart structure, if price manages to hold Turn 1, traders may look for TP1, TP2, and TP3 sequentially on the upside, with an extended target toward the 4129–4135 resistance zone. If selling pressure becomes stronger and Turn 1 is broken, then the Turn 2 zone around 4055–4060 will be the next support area to watch for a deeper retracement before a possible rebound.

On the macro side, gold’s upward momentum over recent sessions has continued to be supported by the market’s reduced concern over an overly aggressive Fed tightening cycle. However, the current backdrop is not entirely one-sided, as investors still need to balance safe-haven demand, Middle East tensions, inflation risks, and monetary policy expectations. The latest data shows gold trading around 4102.86 USD/oz, down 0.51% on the day and down about 2.61% over the past month, but still 22.23% higher than the same period a year ago.

More importantly, gold is still being supported by the geopolitical story and policy uncertainty. According to the latest market description, investors continue to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on inflation and the interest-rate path, while the United States and Iran are still maintaining dialogue even though recent tensions have disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. This is one of the reasons gold continues to retain its defensive role, even though expectations for at least one more Fed rate hike this year have not completely disappeared.

Looking specifically at today’s schedule in U.S. time, there are no additional top-tier releases such as NFP or CPI that could fully change gold’s short-term structure. The remaining notable items are mainly the WASDE Report at 04:00 PM, along with the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count and Total Rigs Count at 05:00 PM. These releases may have an indirect impact through the commodity and energy markets, but in general their influence on gold is much lower than labor or inflation data. This implies that gold’s current price action will most likely continue to follow technical behavior and momentum sentiment rather than a fresh major data shock.

For scalping traders, the more appropriate approach at this stage is to wait for price to retrace toward Turn 1 in order to look for an entry in line with the trend, rather than chasing the market in the middle of the move. If price confirms a solid reaction around the 4088 zone, then a strategy of scaling targets through TP1, TP2, and TP3 is more reasonable in the context of a market still moving within a technical rhythm. If price drops deeper, traders should closely monitor the reaction at Turn 2 to assess whether the uptrend is merely correcting or beginning to weaken more significantly.

The core idea remains to look for a scalp buy at Turn 1, and this is the personal view of Leo_WarRoom.

Jul 10

Trade closed: target reached

Win TP1 + 2

Jul 12

Note

There will be a gap area in the market on Monday. Please exercise caution.

Jul 13

Note

The price is now aligning better with order 2, let's place our orders!