GOLD (XAUUSD) 1hr tf analysis

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
XAUUSD made a high of $1365.95 on Jan. 25 2018 and has been selling off ever since then. The Elliott wave interpretation is for a primary wave B (italicized letter B in black on the chart) to have terminated at the high on Jan. 25 2018. This implies that the current move is part of a primary wave C (an italicized letter C in black when the move is done).

Primary wave C will complete the last leg of what is an expanded flat Elliott wave structure so the current sell off in XAUUSD is far from over.

The move on the 1hr tf and is shaping up so far as an ending diagonal (which is acceptable for the wC of an expanding flat).

POI= Point of invalidation (I do not want to see price action close above this price)= $1339.15
The key areas to watch are between 1327.85 and 1331.35 as I have indicated on the chart. If price action holds in this region, then w5 is next to complete an intermediate w1 move for the current sell off in XAUUSD .

A projection of the termination point of w5 is based on 61.8 % of the move using wave 1 to w3 to 1331.45 (possible termination area for w4) which = ~$1297.49. Some people might go for the 100% projection of w1 to w3 added to the termination point of w4 but I like to be conservative. Assuming figure stays as mentioned above,
RISK on the trade = 1339.15 - 1331.35 = 7.8
REWARD= 1331.35 - 1297.49 = 33.86 RISK/REWARD ratio = 33.86/7.8 = ~4.3: 1
Trade active: XAUUSD holds at resistance area of 1331.35. wave 5 is on the way (Short position) with profit target ~$1297.49
Trade closed: stop reached: Market is working out a different Elliott wave count and is working out a different count
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