2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 28 (0.3718 BTC)
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
My short on Gold was stopped out on 1/25 and that brings the losing streak to ten in a row. I have booked ten losing trades in a row before, probably more times than I can count on one hand, however I cannot remember the last time that I was this surprised / frustrated by the markets.
Starting with the S&P 500 short: I was as confident as I could reasonably be that $2,600 - $2,650 would hold as resistance. The rapidly decreasing volume and confluence of overbought indicators provided strong confirmation. Watching the price cut through that area like a knife through butter was and is very hard for me to wrap my head around. If there was a volume spike it would make sense, but there was not and I am still left scratching my head.
USD:TRY Long: Coming into 2019 I had labeled this my most confident long out of a list of ~ 20 markets I planned to trade this year. There wasn't really a close second, this was the trade that I was most excited about. I started small and intended to bet huge. I didn’t get the chance to add on nearly as much as I planned and this trade has still been my most costly of the year. From highest hopes to biggest loser is very frustrating. To add insult to injury it looks like there is a high chance that I got stopped out on a shakeout before the breakout.
XAU:USD Short: Those two trades above confused me more than any trade I took in 2018 and this one might take the cake.
I still cannot believe that Gold closed above $1,300 and it makes me wonder if the selloff this summer was a massive shakeout before the next breakout.
There was a ton of built up resistance at that area and the price was extremely overbought by the time it got there. It got so overbought that it formed a 5 month parabolic advance. I patiently waited for that to breakdown before entering my short.
That rally on Friday was absolutely mind boggling. After breaking down the parabolic advance it goes on to make a +1.71% move in one day and close the daily above: the 8 year bear TL, the 4 year bull TL that we broke down in July which was expected to act as resistance on a throwback as well as $1,300 horizontal resistance.
When this type of crazy volatility occurs it is likely foreshadowing the next big move. Markets love to shakeout traders before making a big move and I certainly just got shook the fook out! Instead of licking my wounds it is time to stay on red alert and be ready to trade either side of the markets. The following is a very common pattern: tight consolidation -> shakeout -> massive trend. Taking a relatively small loss before capitalizing on a big trend is a large part of what profitable trading is all about. However, if the shakeout causes me to become gun-shy or trepidatious then it could cause me to miss the following trend and that mentality is disastrous.
Times like this remind me of a quote from my late father:
“Sometimes the lights get turned out and there is seemingly nothing that you can do to turn them back on.”
During times like this all I can do is focus on diligently managing risk and maintaining a strong belief that the wins will eventually take care of themselves. I am decreasing my position size as a way to preserve my bankroll while I attempt to get some wins back under my belt. The lights have been turned out on me and that is a very unfortunate way to stay 2019, however:
“It is always darkest before the sun shines”
If handled correctly then times like this can provide the lessons / energy / focus / humility that is needed to take my game to the next level!
Open Positions
Long: USDCAD
*1/17/19 Stop order entered to open long primarily due to recent golden cross with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%)
Price: $1.33032
Stop: $1.3149
Risk: 1.15% / 0.07 BTC
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.21 lots
Margin: 0.057 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.002 BTC
Closed Positions
Short: XAUUSD
* STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots
* STOP LOSS TRIGGERED on 1/25/19
Enter: $1,284.73
Stop: $1,297.34
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.05 lots
Margin: 0.016 BTC
PnL: -0.018191 BTC
ROI: -3.16%
Watchtower
XAU
Alert: Close > $1,300 + weekly close > bear TL I had drawn from ATH.
Notes: I have re adjusted the bear TL to as high as it can go. Weekly close above $1,305 is a buy signal. Close > $1,355 would be signal to add. Weekly cloud at $1,262 looks like a great entry.
XAG
Alerts: Descending Triangle
Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s
USDTRY
Patterns: Looks like Bulkowski Big W is forming
Confirmation: Watching for weekly close > $5.45 & confirmation of inverted hammer at $5.75
S&P 500
Alerts:
Notes: L MA on weekly has rolled over and is expected to act as strong resistance at $2,700. Also watch bear TL that connects 10/1 to 12/3.
Apple
Notes: Expecting bounce from 200 W MA and target is $191. Earnings expected 1/29. Daily Cloud is very bearish. Watching for daily GC + L MA roll up.
BTC
Notes: Watching for Stochastics on daily, 3D and weekly to be in confluence. Until then I am expected further chop. Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish.
XRPBTC
Notes: Weekly close below symmetrical triangle triggered short entry. Passing due to how rapidly the daily parabolic SAR’s are accelerating downward, which is a strong indicator to me that it is oversold / ready for a bounce.
ETHUSD:
Patterns: 5 month bear channel
Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. 3d on r7 and daily on r9 while stochastics are returning to oversold territory. Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA & 3D TDST)
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
My short on Gold was stopped out on 1/25 and that brings the losing streak to ten in a row. I have booked ten losing trades in a row before, probably more times than I can count on one hand, however I cannot remember the last time that I was this surprised / frustrated by the markets.
Starting with the S&P 500 short: I was as confident as I could reasonably be that $2,600 - $2,650 would hold as resistance. The rapidly decreasing volume and confluence of overbought indicators provided strong confirmation. Watching the price cut through that area like a knife through butter was and is very hard for me to wrap my head around. If there was a volume spike it would make sense, but there was not and I am still left scratching my head.
USD:TRY Long: Coming into 2019 I had labeled this my most confident long out of a list of ~ 20 markets I planned to trade this year. There wasn't really a close second, this was the trade that I was most excited about. I started small and intended to bet huge. I didn’t get the chance to add on nearly as much as I planned and this trade has still been my most costly of the year. From highest hopes to biggest loser is very frustrating. To add insult to injury it looks like there is a high chance that I got stopped out on a shakeout before the breakout.
XAU:USD Short: Those two trades above confused me more than any trade I took in 2018 and this one might take the cake.
I still cannot believe that Gold closed above $1,300 and it makes me wonder if the selloff this summer was a massive shakeout before the next breakout.
There was a ton of built up resistance at that area and the price was extremely overbought by the time it got there. It got so overbought that it formed a 5 month parabolic advance. I patiently waited for that to breakdown before entering my short.
That rally on Friday was absolutely mind boggling. After breaking down the parabolic advance it goes on to make a +1.71% move in one day and close the daily above: the 8 year bear TL, the 4 year bull TL that we broke down in July which was expected to act as resistance on a throwback as well as $1,300 horizontal resistance.
When this type of crazy volatility occurs it is likely foreshadowing the next big move. Markets love to shakeout traders before making a big move and I certainly just got shook the fook out! Instead of licking my wounds it is time to stay on red alert and be ready to trade either side of the markets. The following is a very common pattern: tight consolidation -> shakeout -> massive trend. Taking a relatively small loss before capitalizing on a big trend is a large part of what profitable trading is all about. However, if the shakeout causes me to become gun-shy or trepidatious then it could cause me to miss the following trend and that mentality is disastrous.
Times like this remind me of a quote from my late father:
“Sometimes the lights get turned out and there is seemingly nothing that you can do to turn them back on.”
During times like this all I can do is focus on diligently managing risk and maintaining a strong belief that the wins will eventually take care of themselves. I am decreasing my position size as a way to preserve my bankroll while I attempt to get some wins back under my belt. The lights have been turned out on me and that is a very unfortunate way to stay 2019, however:
“It is always darkest before the sun shines”
If handled correctly then times like this can provide the lessons / energy / focus / humility that is needed to take my game to the next level!
Open Positions
Long: USDCAD
*1/17/19 Stop order entered to open long primarily due to recent golden cross with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%)
Price: $1.33032
Stop: $1.3149
Risk: 1.15% / 0.07 BTC
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.21 lots
Margin: 0.057 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.002 BTC
Closed Positions
Short: XAUUSD
* STOP ORDER TRIGGERED on 1/18/19 to short 0.05 lots
* STOP LOSS TRIGGERED on 1/25/19
Enter: $1,284.73
Stop: $1,297.34
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.05 lots
Margin: 0.016 BTC
PnL: -0.018191 BTC
ROI: -3.16%
Watchtower
XAU
Alert: Close > $1,300 + weekly close > bear TL I had drawn from ATH.
Notes: I have re adjusted the bear TL to as high as it can go. Weekly close above $1,305 is a buy signal. Close > $1,355 would be signal to add. Weekly cloud at $1,262 looks like a great entry.
XAG
Alerts: Descending Triangle
Notes: Testing cluster or resistance from horizontals & TL’s
USDTRY
Patterns: Looks like Bulkowski Big W is forming
Confirmation: Watching for weekly close > $5.45 & confirmation of inverted hammer at $5.75
S&P 500
Alerts:
Notes: L MA on weekly has rolled over and is expected to act as strong resistance at $2,700. Also watch bear TL that connects 10/1 to 12/3.
Apple
Notes: Expecting bounce from 200 W MA and target is $191. Earnings expected 1/29. Daily Cloud is very bearish. Watching for daily GC + L MA roll up.
BTC
Notes: Watching for Stochastics on daily, 3D and weekly to be in confluence. Until then I am expected further chop. Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish.
XRPBTC
Notes: Weekly close below symmetrical triangle triggered short entry. Passing due to how rapidly the daily parabolic SAR’s are accelerating downward, which is a strong indicator to me that it is oversold / ready for a bounce.
ETHUSD:
Patterns: 5 month bear channel
Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. 3d on r7 and daily on r9 while stochastics are returning to oversold territory. Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA & 3D TDST)
Comment:
^^^Credit to MagicPoopCannon
Comment:
Making a daily update may be excessive, especially when little had changed about my positions. I want to put things on record, in real time and that likely will not require as many posts as I originally thought.
Moving forward I will comment on prior posts if I feel like a daily post is excessive.
*Scale out 55% of USDCAD long on 1/28/19 due to needing to decrease exposure / minimize risk following string of losses.
Exposure: 0.1 lots
Stop: $1.3149
Realized PnL: -0.0129 BTC
Moving forward I will comment on prior posts if I feel like a daily post is excessive.
*Scale out 55% of USDCAD long on 1/28/19 due to needing to decrease exposure / minimize risk following string of losses.
Exposure: 0.1 lots
Stop: $1.3149
Realized PnL: -0.0129 BTC
Comment:
Stopp loss triggered on remainder of USDCAD long.
*1/30/19 Stopped out
Enter: $1.33032
Stop: $1.3149
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.21 lots
Realized PnL: -0.0469 BTC
ROI: -0.74%
Bankroll now at 0.32446 BTC
*1/30/19 Stopped out
Enter: $1.33032
Stop: $1.3149
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.21 lots
Realized PnL: -0.0469 BTC
ROI: -0.74%
Bankroll now at 0.32446 BTC
Comment:
Entered following orders:
1) Stop Market to Long 27 LTCH19 @ 0.00921. Stop loss set at 0.00824. Projected risk = 0.025 BTC. Reason for entry is Weekly Consensio turning bullish.
2) Stop Market to Long 1,000 XRP:USD @ $0.33776. Stop loss set at 0.2798. Projected risk = 0.0165 BTC. Reason for entry is P > S & M MA after fake breakdown. Also broke daily SAR.
1) Stop Market to Long 27 LTCH19 @ 0.00921. Stop loss set at 0.00824. Projected risk = 0.025 BTC. Reason for entry is Weekly Consensio turning bullish.
2) Stop Market to Long 1,000 XRP:USD @ $0.33776. Stop loss set at 0.2798. Projected risk = 0.0165 BTC. Reason for entry is P > S & M MA after fake breakdown. Also broke daily SAR.
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