Jnug to Gold "not finished with the B wave yet?"
If we are still in a triangle consolidation with everything being larger 3 wave structures, then the small b wave that we are in should not have been completed yet and we should move up to at least the 100% measured move to 1320 and possibly a little higher to the red zone. After that I really really feel that jumping into JDST or DUST is going to pay bigly. I think that gold will complete its yearly cycle low in mid to late December. I have another FIB measurement for that drop. It shows a low of 1207. I do think gold hits that very long term uptrend line. That would complete wave d. That means that the only thing left would be wave e. And after wave e then there should be a very large drop next year. ** (I understand that this is a bearish scenario and that everyone is still calling for the breakout to continue. I am not convinced. There is the slightly more bullish scenario that I am watching for that has the larger B wave for gold going up to the $1400 + range before completing the B wave. If that is going to be the case then gold really should do that move starting next week or over the next couple weeks. Otherwise its too late for this years move. And for gold to not make a higher high than the 2016 high, IS BEARISH).
SO once again I am attaching the GLD chart to show my longer term view. Its a cleaner chart with less lines but you will get the point.
I think that measured triangle move down for gold on this GLD chart equates to around the $980's level. And at that point I will have to reassess gold to figure out if gold will finally bottom there or make a measured move further down for the larger A wave move from 2011 to December 2015. A full 100% move for that drop would bring gold to $500. Eh..thats hard to envision right now. $612 would be would be the 78% move down for the entire gold rally of the 2000's. ......Too much wishful thinking right now in my opinion. so back to the present. Next chart ... Jnug
Miners obviously have not been following gold very much this last year. I am guessing that there are opposing forces at works here which is giving us the crazy pattern that we have. I think miners is being affected by both the stock markets bullishness and gold price. (TO name a few factors). I can't and wont even try to pinpoint what is. So the arrows is what I am thinking will be Jnugs movement short term. And I do think that Jnug will drop pretty hard with gold towards the end of the year. So it appears to me that we are just about to complete a mini wave 5 down. Maybe Monday or Tuesday. I am personally going to take a chance and buy Jnug around the $16.70 range and try to play a short term bounce. maybe for a week or two. Then I would get out. I do not think it will break through the red zone $20 level.
OK. Last caveat. The stock market and gold. This is really that part that is causing me grief with gold and Jnug. Will it just continue or are we going to get that 8 - 10% market correction. If we do get the correction, how is gold and Jnug going to behave through all of that? I just don't know. If the SP500 gets to around the 2600 mark then I may once again try my hand with the VIX. As for gold, I think it is safe to stay on the sidelines for a while to see what happens at the end of October or early November before resuming the gold plays. Maybe jump into ugaz (natural gas for the winter rally). Or maybe by then Oil will have topped at $54 - $56 and start its end of year drop (DWT). That's all I have for now. GL
SO once again I am attaching the GLD chart to show my longer term view. Its a cleaner chart with less lines but you will get the point.
OK. Last caveat. The stock market and gold. This is really that part that is causing me grief with gold and Jnug. Will it just continue or are we going to get that 8 - 10% market correction. If we do get the correction, how is gold and Jnug going to behave through all of that? I just don't know. If the SP500 gets to around the 2600 mark then I may once again try my hand with the VIX. As for gold, I think it is safe to stay on the sidelines for a while to see what happens at the end of October or early November before resuming the gold plays. Maybe jump into ugaz (natural gas for the winter rally). Or maybe by then Oil will have topped at $54 - $56 and start its end of year drop (DWT). That's all I have for now. GL
Comment:
Gold update
I feel that gold is going to drop to the 200 DMA and top of the red zone. This is also the location for the Monthly 20 and 10 MA which are intersecting in the yellow oval area. I think the bounce for gold and miners will take place in the next couple of days. GL
I feel that gold is going to drop to the 200 DMA and top of the red zone. This is also the location for the Monthly 20 and 10 MA which are intersecting in the yellow oval area. I think the bounce for gold and miners will take place in the next couple of days. GL
Comment:
Comment:
It is my opinion that Jnug bottomed this morning. I bought in at $15.85. I am looking for a short term bounce. Maybe 1-2 weeks. I am expecting gold to bounce soon as well
Comment:
Gap fills at $14.90. Didn't think we would get that so soon. High volume. Capitulation
As for Jnug. we broke through a intermediate trendline today. I am looking at the falling wedge to find support when gold bounces. So I am looking for Jnug to bottom Tuesday or possibly early Wednesday. Down further than I thought. Looks like $15.80 to $15.70's range.