PRS LIVE #1 ENDING: GOLD TOP AT 2222 BY 8/12
MY BUDDY ZAINYZAIN99 ASKED FOR THIS, SAYS WILL DONATE $100 SHOULD I NAIL THE THE TOP. CONSERVATIVE MATH SAYS 2145-2185 ON TUESDAY 08/11/20, I CHOSE 2222 FOR EFFECT, BUT HONESTLY IF I WAS NOT OVERTHINKING, IT WOULD BE 2265. IF IT GETS CUTE ABOVE 2270, RISK AND REWARD FOR SHORT SELLING IS BEYOND RIDICULOUS.
First and foremost, please like/follow for my sake. The easiest way to support is tapping that like button. Or donate for my kids who I neglect in order to bring you these fantastic trading ideas.
Second, I have heard the calls for gold top since 1790's from professional traders. I have been told of the Twitter feed about "contrarian signals" from kids and barbershops that was wrong 150 points ago. Now it is even my peers who discuss gold trading daily. CAUTION!! EXTREME DANGER!! NFP!! DXY!! RIP GOLD BULLS!! DIE SILVER DIE, BEARS LIVE FOREVER!! In any case, this rally is NOT finished. If this completes like 2011, top should be 2100+/-15 and is likely to come tomorrow, 08/07. If it follows the 1980 regression fractal - which I believe is the best predictor of price - that has a strong match for at least 1000 previous days, it should be 2265+/-25 coming next Tuesday or Wednesday (08/11-12). If I adjust for recent price action and volume trends, I get 2165+/-20 on Tuesday 8/11. Personally, from where we stand this second, I find it very hard to believe we top without tagging 2160. Tagging 2222.22 would professionally vindicate my methodology.
Third, this comparison between 1980 and 2020 (chart below) is where we are in my mind. Note that the the foundation waves don't appear to be finished by any means. This has several implications:
1) after the next major high, the draw down will only take 1 calendar month instead of 2 (gold corrections has like to bottom 60 days after high)
2) while 1820 is on EVERYONE's mind for a retest (I've heard worse), I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL EVEN RETEST 1975
3) a possible and even crazier double top above 2400 (without historical precedent) that I won't detail right now
Finally, some notes history that I have expounded over and over and over and over and over and over:
1) in 1980, gold moved 40% higher while the dollar rose higher
2) in 2011, gold moved 20% higher while the dollar rose higher
3) these were massive tops like the one we are in right now
4) correlations are terrible in practice, but in these situations, using wrong correlations can be suicidal
5) I have stated in the analysis walk through (link below) why price is acting like 2011
6) but I have also stated why it should act like 1980 for the finish
If you have been following me, there are no need for introductions. If you haven't, entry was 1955, current SL is 2044, current TP is 2160. Here are preceding chapters to this idea:
Conception: www.tradingview.com/...ARIO-TACTICAL-GUIDE/
Formal trade idea:
Derivative map:
Analysis walk-through:
Projection for 7/09:
Projection for 6/19:
Per the usual will add/update if I have time.
First and foremost, please like/follow for my sake. The easiest way to support is tapping that like button. Or donate for my kids who I neglect in order to bring you these fantastic trading ideas.
Second, I have heard the calls for gold top since 1790's from professional traders. I have been told of the Twitter feed about "contrarian signals" from kids and barbershops that was wrong 150 points ago. Now it is even my peers who discuss gold trading daily. CAUTION!! EXTREME DANGER!! NFP!! DXY!! RIP GOLD BULLS!! DIE SILVER DIE, BEARS LIVE FOREVER!! In any case, this rally is NOT finished. If this completes like 2011, top should be 2100+/-15 and is likely to come tomorrow, 08/07. If it follows the 1980 regression fractal - which I believe is the best predictor of price - that has a strong match for at least 1000 previous days, it should be 2265+/-25 coming next Tuesday or Wednesday (08/11-12). If I adjust for recent price action and volume trends, I get 2165+/-20 on Tuesday 8/11. Personally, from where we stand this second, I find it very hard to believe we top without tagging 2160. Tagging 2222.22 would professionally vindicate my methodology.
Third, this comparison between 1980 and 2020 (chart below) is where we are in my mind. Note that the the foundation waves don't appear to be finished by any means. This has several implications:
1) after the next major high, the draw down will only take 1 calendar month instead of 2 (gold corrections has like to bottom 60 days after high)
2) while 1820 is on EVERYONE's mind for a retest (I've heard worse), I DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL EVEN RETEST 1975
3) a possible and even crazier double top above 2400 (without historical precedent) that I won't detail right now
Finally, some notes history that I have expounded over and over and over and over and over and over:
1) in 1980, gold moved 40% higher while the dollar rose higher
2) in 2011, gold moved 20% higher while the dollar rose higher
3) these were massive tops like the one we are in right now
4) correlations are terrible in practice, but in these situations, using wrong correlations can be suicidal
5) I have stated in the analysis walk through (link below) why price is acting like 2011
6) but I have also stated why it should act like 1980 for the finish
If you have been following me, there are no need for introductions. If you haven't, entry was 1955, current SL is 2044, current TP is 2160. Here are preceding chapters to this idea:
Conception: www.tradingview.com/...ARIO-TACTICAL-GUIDE/
Formal trade idea:
Derivative map:
Analysis walk-through:
![PRS LIVE#1 I [HAVE] CONSIDERED ALL THE ROUTES](https://s3.tradingview.com/w/wyIl1S6g_big.png)
Projection for 7/09:
Projection for 6/19:
Per the usual will add/update if I have time.
Comment:
TYPO AT THE TOP: I do not believe we are even retesting 1955. I said 1975 at the top, it should say 1955.