However, last month alone, India imported 126 tons. Eastern demand dwarfs western demand for physical, notwithstanding COMEX manipulation by the criminal banking institutions. So it is there that you should focus on to fully understand the true supply/demand picture.
However I think "demand" and "control" are to very different things. Whom ever controls the market,owns it .If interest rates go up in china, dos it really effect gold prices? No. If the rupee fluctuates dos it effect prices? No. Even the terror attacks in the UK had very small influence on the market. However an attack in the US ( less so as market becomes more robust towards terror type events ) or rate hikes in the US have far greater knock-on effect. The USA is the single biggest influence on this market as well as silver by default.
China and India have been market players for some time now. If demand played such a big part, then why has the price of gold not steadily been going higher over the past 5-10 years, rather then coming down?? When Greeces, Italy and Spain were having massive financial problems, did gold go up? No not really.
I am not saying other countries don't have an effect on the price...but not at same level.
"Control" keeps the prices in rotation. "Demand" stops the market crashing .
And I am not sure but considering the news coming out of the UK in-terms of silver price manipulation we could asume the US has influence there ...on gold.
The stock market is doing well, or is stable for now. There will be hikes in rates in the US. The dollar is holding its own for the moment. As for the EU,there is nothing massive happening there at moment. So in my view, gold has no reason to go up. Not to the level people here keep saying.1400,1500..... what would make it go up that high in the space of 6 months? So for the next 6- month( year end) I simply can see it going higher then 1285, it might...I just don't think will. Considering how unexpectedly volatile the market has been over past two week, it is not a stretch to say or rather to consider that we might start seeing more of a bearish trend come into play then a super bullish one that would take us to the 1400 and 1500.
The gold market is not as gobble as people think.
1) It was the 80/20 import rule instituted in 2013 and 10% import tax in 2013 - This had a tremendous impact on demand at the time, and completely changed sentiment. The banksters bombed Gold on the Comex at the same time and the route has been on.
2) The demonitization scheme that removed over 85% of currency bills from the economy, which just so happened to be announced (by coincidence) at the exact moment Trump won Florida & Gold was soaring while the S*P was limit down. So we have been correcting since that 1,340 high
So your analysis may very well be right that Gold doesn't cross 1,300 this year, but my point is that the East dominates Gold demand with thousands of tons being imported by India & China alone per year. Since you now know this you want to be mindful of strong seasonal trends that exist in the Metals due to festival & religion related buying.
Best of luck!
Best of luck to you to.