MQP 18D PRE-FOMC UPDATE
HEADER - 90 min to go until FOMC.
SUMMARY - 18C didn't get lower, which really does annoy me. That seems to mean that 5/12-5/17 window is a lower low 1833. We will deal with that later.
DETAILS - Odds now favor low 1849 was the low (for now). 1855 is daily swing low 1920 tomorrow. Then zig zag to another low around 5/13-5/16 (Fri-Mon). All for now.
SUMMARY - 18C didn't get lower, which really does annoy me. That seems to mean that 5/12-5/17 window is a lower low 1833. We will deal with that later.
DETAILS - Odds now favor low 1849 was the low (for now). 1855 is daily swing low 1920 tomorrow. Then zig zag to another low around 5/13-5/16 (Fri-Mon). All for now.
Comment:
10:05 PM ET, WED NIGHT
1. 1903 minutes ago
2. only about 2 hours left of vertical momentum, hard to see it keep going past midnight ET
3. 1925 possible, don't know if there's enough time left to get beyond that
1. 1903 minutes ago
2. only about 2 hours left of vertical momentum, hard to see it keep going past midnight ET
3. 1925 possible, don't know if there's enough time left to get beyond that
Comment:
10:25 PM ET
4. regression fractals says immediate rally window open until 1:30 AM ET
5. bar count says it's midnight
6. this isn't trivial, it's the difference between 1925 and 1955
7. use IRL DX/DY RATIO 9/17 on 1-, 2-, 4-, 8-, 16-, and 32-min bars to track the waves topping
8. use 1/2 rule for trend change to watch the top if you are up tonight
9. good night
4. regression fractals says immediate rally window open until 1:30 AM ET
5. bar count says it's midnight
6. this isn't trivial, it's the difference between 1925 and 1955
7. use IRL DX/DY RATIO 9/17 on 1-, 2-, 4-, 8-, 16-, and 32-min bars to track the waves topping
8. use 1/2 rule for trend change to watch the top if you are up tonight
9. good night
Comment:
1:45 AM ET THURS
1. buyers stepping in at 2 AM?
2. hold 1900 and we'll be higher at 6 AM.
1. buyers stepping in at 2 AM?
2. hold 1900 and we'll be higher at 6 AM.
Comment:
8:55 AM ET PREMARKET 1908
1. it didn't hold 1900 before bouncing
2. this morning ceiling 1923-ish
3. going to be sold w/in 1st hour of markets open
4. selling will be strong after 11:30
5. 1890 again after noon?
6. THIS DROP WILL BE BOUGHT
7. another run will begin before New York closes with decent odds of moving above 1923 BEFORE FRIDAY OPEN
8. this means the 4TH BOX may not hit
1. it didn't hold 1900 before bouncing
2. this morning ceiling 1923-ish
3. going to be sold w/in 1st hour of markets open
4. selling will be strong after 11:30
5. 1890 again after noon?
6. THIS DROP WILL BE BOUGHT
7. another run will begin before New York closes with decent odds of moving above 1923 BEFORE FRIDAY OPEN
8. this means the 4TH BOX may not hit
Comment:
9. to clarify, bc running to 1930 HOURS BEFORE NFP IS RECIPE FOR 40 PT DROP
10. that is just how prices act... barring a giant surprise, after which you still get a delayed drop
10. that is just how prices act... barring a giant surprise, after which you still get a delayed drop
Comment:
1:35 PM ET, too low this morning. THIS IS NEXT.
1. 1920 overnight.
2. If if 1940+, watch out for massive retrace to 1900.
3. In that case, 1900 would be a buy after the overnight retrace.
4. Celing for U.S. market on Thursday same as overnight high if meaningfully over 1920.
5. Like 1935-1960.
6. If overnight high 1900 or less, then it may take 2 days to hit 1950