XAUUSD: Rounding Top Signals Fresh Bearish Pressure Toward 4,030

Jul 9

Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup.

Market Analysis

XAUUSD previously traded inside a broad descending channel after breaking below an earlier triangle support, confirming a bearish market structure. Price later found support near the 4,030 Support Zone, triggering a recovery. However, the rebound formed a Rounding Top pattern beneath the 4,200 Resistance Zone, signaling that buying momentum is fading.

Currently, XAUUSD is trading above the 4,030 Support Zone while remaining below the 4,200 Resistance Zone. Price has rejected the upper boundary of the recovery and continues to trade below the long-term descending channel resistance, keeping sellers in control.

My Scenario & Strategy

As long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,200 Resistance Zone and respects the descending channel resistance, the bearish scenario remains valid. A continuation lower could push price toward the 4,030 Support Zone (TP1).

However, a confirmed breakout above the 4,200 Resistance Zone and the descending trendline would weaken the bearish outlook and favor a stronger bullish recovery.

That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.

Jul 10

Trade active

Overall, we see today a continuation of the decline in the gold price to the support zone!

Jul 13

Trade closed: target reached

Still, the price has dropped to the level I expected where buyers are protecting themselves. Our target has been reached and that's great!