I think if we get a confirmed swing low by closing above 10sma, we are in the 4th cycle and Scenario #1 is in play. Price can go up to 50sma area, before heading back down.
If we drop from here, it will be scenario #2 and 3rd cycle will continue further.
My bet is on Scenario 1 and will be looking to short near 50sma with stop above $1306
Still on the sidelines to see what transpires, but expecting to short close to 50ma.