SUMMARY - This is continuation from end of DRAFT 3.
DETAILS - This is what the fractals say, if trend and momentum hold. I rand 7 angles to compare & contrast and don't have a reason why this shouldn't be the forecast.
DEAL BREAKER? - If price heads to 2040 in 24 hours of posting this and hold gains.
NOTES - Per usual, will add when I know more.
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NOTES 1 - 11:11 AM ET WED 04/05, 2018.31, from 2010, but high was 2032.xx a) note that futures was 2050+ b) so what do I know now? c) first, on an hour to hour basis, current situation is stronger vs fractal posted at end of DRAFT 3 d) on a daily basis, it is still weaker considerably e) current trends have us hitting 1988 before midnight Thursday to Friday f) the question on my mind is do I have conviction DRAFT 3 will play out? g) the answer is no, so we are solidly on DRAFT 4 right now
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NOTES 2 - WHAT ABOUT OUR TRADE PLAN STARTING 4/6-4/7? a) it is off the table b) our entry now looks like around 1945, maybe even lower c) when? d) 4/11 to 4/-13, that is TUES-WED-THURS OF NEXT WEEK, that is the entry e) do I still see 2145? f) maybe, a weak maybe g) so what exit expectations? h) 2070-2145 04/18 to 04/20 i) I am leaning closer to 2070, that is what adjustments for the fractals say j) those are my thoughts right now
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TEMPORARY TRACKING 1 - NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO a) so it's 12:17 PM, 22.61 b) regressions say 2004-2006 should get hit BEFORE NEW YORK CLOSES
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c) my 1-min bar looks like this:
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d) for chart above: e) all this is saying is the next 4 hours favor short side
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TEMPORARY TRACKING 2:14 PM. a) neutral now b) bulls have a route to move up in a big way c) it's unclear what will happen now
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TEMPORARY TRACKING 11:02 AM ET THURS, 04/06, 2012.XX a) took a while for bulls to wear out b) looks like another run for 2020 before they give up c) expecting 1980 tomorrow
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THIS POST HAS ENDED, SO HAS DRAFT 4-2. PLEASE REFER TO DRAFT 3 UNTIL DRAFT 5 IS READY:
@anand1988, Regressions are just best fit of price curve. So it doesn't say yes or no, just what is likely. From where we stand today, it's HARD to imagine anything under 1925 for quite some time. The curves now say gradually down to 1940s, maybe lower, then a run to 2070, maybe higher, by 4/20. The weakest extrapolations, have us hitting 2040 and reversing down. This would put the May 15 low around 1940 again. To sum it up, the regression curves do not show 18xx for a while. This is becasue 5/20 starts another rally to 6/20.