GOLD - Return of the Bear

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
1471 7 39
With last Thursday's breakout the late bulls had been fed by a lot of gold             contracts.
Someone must bite the bullet and these are now the late bulls who were buying the breakout...
I haven' posted the COT numbers for a long time now...
The Commitment of Traders report ( COT ) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data.
The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report.
We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .

The last COT datas (0) are predicting that smartmoney is heavily shorting the gold             market.
The commercial short position has been raised for a few weeks now. It was at 357.000 last Tuesday.
Gold             couldn't fall because of the weak dollar, but now as the dollar is strengthening again gold             willl start its decline after the first stage of this starting bull market.
The 50 EMA was holding the price nicely but next week it will break down and we will be testing the 100 EMA at 1193.
The next stage will be the 200 EMA . I think that this decline will go at least to the 200 EMA at 1174.

In an extreme case - depending on the strengthening dollar and a stock market rally to new highs- we can break below the 200 EMA in the following 4-5 weeks.

IMPORTANT: The bull in gold             has started. I'm not waiting for price going below 1050 in this decline. Though at the end of this correction we will have a lot of analysts calling sub 1000 $ gold             prices again. That will be our holy grail buying opportuntity to a 1400$ gold             by the end of this year.

Very interesting data. Thx :)
My target is around 1150 sometime near June 15. At that point it should be safe to buy again. Currently short with DUST and JDST.
DUST and JDST short?
If gold starts the decline to 1150$ DUST & JDST will rally GDX and GDXJ will fall.
JesseL chartwatchers
Correction, I am long DUST/JDST
I like your analyses very much. Thanks. I'm looking for 1164'ish in May sometime as the next bottom - certainly no lower than 1100. DXY may bull for a bit longer but I think fear will come back to power gold before DXY loses strength. Markets to crash in June/July 2016 - Brexit is small in a global context but it could still be the straw to break the camel's back.
+1 Reply
Brexit might end the dollar rally what is starting now.
Finenance chartwatchers
Good point! I think we'll vote leave - I know I will :)
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