chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - The one and only

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
10268 111 119
I would like to summarize where we are now because I still see a few people just don’t seem to understand what's happening. Usually I don't care about the fundamentals but this time we have to watch them.

1. Stocks are clearly collapsing. We have a failed daily cycle and we are heading down into the ICL. The buyers have disappeared because of the elections and if there was a US government manipulation regarding stocks they are way too scared to do anything now as the head of the FBI showed his power last Friday. Money is coming out of stocks . It should be crystal clear for everybody.
2. Oil             . This is a huge market and it's clearly losing ground. Maybe because of stocks , maybe because of something else but it's going down and pulling down oil             shares. Money is coming out of this sector also.
3. Dollar. The head of FBI had called the top in the dollar last week. One of the president nominees might be guilty at the very least of mishandling classified documents and perhaps obstruction of justice. They are selling the dollar.

When markets are scared it's time to face to safe heavens. In this case the dollar will not act as a safe heaven but gold             will.

So we have a really good chance that the one and only thing they will be buying during the following weeks will be gold             ....

What we had exactly during the last 2 weeks?
Gold             had broken down from the blue triangle. The whole breakdown was an artificial move with a big contract dump. The target price counted from the triangle (height of the triangle : red line) was completed at 1241$. We also tagged and break below the 200 SMA - remember from oil             how important is the 200 SMA at the ICL- but there was no follow through.
The first mistake traders committed was the hope in the bear flag what broke to the upside . Actually it was not a bear flag . It was a bottoming process after a manufactured break down.

The second mistake will be the back test of the triangle. A lot of traders will try to short at 1310 as a testback of the triangle. There will not be a backtest. The triangle is history. We broke down. Target price is completed. If we are back to 1310 we are not going to turn down from there we are going to break that level.

I want to prepare you for this scenario because tomorrow or Thursday we are going to test 1310.
I would not try to short this right now because we might see a more powerful event what we had at the Brexit night. My suggestion is to try to find an entry point and ride this wave.
This is going to be a huge run.

I don't think the FED will influence this tomorrow. If they want to have any chance for Clinton to win the elections they will be dead neutral. No rate hike tomorrow. And not talking about the rate hike in December.
Comment: We are having bear goulash for dinner tonight.
Comment: Almost back to the bottom of the triangle.
Shorts' last hope.
Comment: FOMC is coming up in 2 hrs. I have seen a lot of things on these days so I don't want to be surprised.
I have a horrible long position.
So I'm going to close 25% of my position before FED.
I'm going to reopen them if Yellen is not going crazy and she does what she has to do.
Comment: Not touching the miners long positions....
Comment: "I don't think the FED will influence this tomorrow. If they want to have any chance for Clinton to win the elections they will be dead neutral. No rate hike tomorrow. And not talking about the rate hike in December. "
Yellen did her homework well.
Comment: Now it's your turn:
"The second mistake will be the back test of the triangle. A lot of traders will try to short at 1310 as a testback of the triangle. There will not be a backtest. The triangle is history. We broke down. Target price is completed. If we are back to 1310 we are not going to turn down from there we are going to break that level.
"
Comment: Building the bull flag:
snapshot

1290-92 could be a good entry point.
Comment: Reopening the 25% position at 1292$ what I closed around 1305-6 yesterday.
Comment: I found a similar flag after an intermediate bottom.
We can be in the flag till the election or even a week from today...
snapshot
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Interesting.
Are we having a bear trap?
snapshot
Comment: I can see again a lot of short idea in gold here in TV.
Hourly double top and now the testbcak.
This is the same story just as with the triangle.
The target price counted from the double top - height of the double top - was completed. So the testback will not work.
It was a bear trap. They will need to stop out soon.
snapshot
Comment: So far so good.
So this pattern testback rule is an old rule and in nowdays modern trading has forgotten about it. When target price counted from the pattern is tagged testback is not working.
The question now: are we ready to break higher or there will be one more round to the lower line of the flag.
snapshot
Comment: Let's see if bears are given one more chance to get out of their shorts.
I guess no.
snapshot
Comment: We had that last round down to the bottom of the flag in the night.
It looks a flag breakout to me...
snapshot
Comment: Fasten your seat belts.
New high is coming
Comment: OOM
Comment: BOOM
:)
+3 Reply
Much appreciated!
+2 Reply
Like usual on the money. Have always been a fan of your analysis and reason.

Keep it going, I love making calls and coming here to confirm I am not crazy.

Appreciate it.
+4 Reply
There got to be another bear trap before breaking 1310, just to lure the shorts in. Maybe from 13xx back down to the channel. And from there we might take off. Or maybe not.))
+2 Reply
Thank you! But we still have speculation sentiments index net long holding. 1310 can be hedged and I hope you guys NOT bet on it. You can hedge it if you know how to do it.
+3 Reply
VirtualFax Victor.Y.F
Agreed. I'll stay long but will also be hedging. I hedged the first pop to $1,273 which not only allowed me to continue holding longs more comfortably but also turned itself into a modest profit as a result of the subsequent retracement.

Speaking about "know how to", I used JDST for hedging. What about you?
+3 Reply
Victor.Y.F PRO VirtualFax
Thank you for your reply VirtulFax. I think your hedging is more like leverage but I'm saying something different.
+3 Reply
VirtualFax Victor.Y.F
If you are referring to JDST being a leveraged ETF, then yes, it absolutely is. And that allows me to get a substantial hedge exposure with a relatively small capital investment.


Anyhow, I'm curious what's your approach to hedging is? Mind sharing?
+2 Reply
Everybody here is appreciative of the time and effort you spend on sharing your ideas which also allows us to compare and reconcile our own trading plans. Thank you Arpi.
+6 Reply
webmiztriz PRO VirtualFax
Well said virtual :-)
+1 Reply
Thanks man. Got out of my but today perhaps a bit prematurely. We'll see. Looking for another entry. Will be looking for your insight as usual tomorrow.
+1 Reply
Thanks, but everyone know rate hike in Dec for sure and more frequently in 2017.
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VirtualFax tradingviewfox
I don't think it's a given...
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NihalCassim tradingviewfox
everyone but me.
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shawn.ctech tradingviewfox
Have you never been surprised before? here is your chance...
+2 Reply
You are so awesome! No if this do this if that do that bull crap like most. Your cycle analysis are so amazing! Following you till the end of time... lol
Thank you so much and God bless!

+2 Reply
vantruong vantruong
Don't know how I came across you but you are a part of my life now. haha...
+4 Reply
eskeybee vantruong
lol! that feeling tho...
+3 Reply
I love Bear Goulash! But what kind of wine to serve?
+4 Reply
Greatest Arpi!
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when every happen i have put SL 1298, i keep on changing SL and TP up , and wating untill hit my SL. goodbye gold loss.
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Mhm goulash, and you’re Hungarian so it’s gonna be really tasty! ;)
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While all the Eliott wave analysts, big names like Avi Giburt, were waiting for the last leg down, the so called wave 5, you were among the few experts who precisely detected and called the bottom. Well done Arpi, and keep shining like gold!
+1 Reply
Guys, let's not get too excited, the day is not over yet and we never know what the bears have in store for us. Besides, FOMC is still 3.5 hrs away.

As for touching the bottom of the triangle, in my world we already penetrated well into the wedge (think red lines):

snapshot


+1 Reply
VirtualFax VirtualFax
I meant "thick red lines"
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what should the TP and SL be?
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The one that just dumped 5m shares in GDX wants something different for goulash.
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VirtualFax MetalCruisers
There doesn't seem to be much damage so far as a result of the dump. And 5m is only about 7% or so of the average daily volume.

So, one of two: either that someone is playing safe before FOMC or he/she knows that FOMC will result in downward pressure on Gold/GDX.
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VirtualFax MetalCruisers
I guess whoever dumped GDX knew what they were doing. At least in the short-term...
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wow, very thorough update, you called it.
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I loved reading this. S&p down oil down gold up. Good thoughts
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Arpi,

Thank you for you great analysis. You are on the wave ;-)
What do you think about short Cooper?
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mbw1972 ArtFly
copper going to jump out of the tri-angle.
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mbw1972 mbw1972
(Chart: TNTSunrise)
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mbw1972 mbw1972
I meant to link to TNTSunrise's entire published idea, not just his chart
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I think it will go down first than up. So no breakout right now.
But I dont have cycle count in copper.
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ArtFly chartwatchers
Thank you very much guys

I think go down and break lower arm of the triangle but we will see...... time for old liar Janet
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Not yet. It just broke out of the wedge, it might test previous heights again at around 2.260 to 2.270 before it goes down again to retest the wedge. From there it might bounce again. Check this post as well:
copper going to jump out of the tri-angle.
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Great stuff! thanks
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gr8 stuff:)
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why is it going down ?
no rate hike!
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jolu jolu
and miners too losing steam..
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We rallied 20 $ today.
Step by step.
Gold is overbought.
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jolu chartwatchers
ok thank you! i still hold JNUG ..it was just strange after good news that we lose ground and in miners we are even in the red
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jolu jolu
GDX seems to behave like a flag and now we were at the top of the second wave..
That is what i think now.. 4H chart is pointing down too
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jolu chartwatchers
arpi,i have a little question please:
why did you took profit on gold and not on miners too since they were both overbought as you mentioned?
what is the difference ? especielly since miners usually follows gold
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I got caught off guard : I thought miners would not be retracing so hard.
I was adding to my JNUG position at the close.
+2 Reply
nmvipe711 chartwatchers
My guess would be we see something like Feb 9 - 11th of this year. That would equate to a pull back in Gold to 1285 and GDX might tag its 200SMA again at $24. We then reverse and gap up the next day. Would be a nice setup. We'll just have to see what happens tomorrow!
+1 Reply
Gold falling heavily after Yellen. Good point to reenter Long ?
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I will reenter with the closed 25% tomorrow.
+1 Reply
ICL?
+1 Reply
I had to look it up. Investor Cycle Low. DCL is Daily Cycle Low.
Read it from here:
http://www.bullbeartalk.com/forum/lounge/1730-dcl-vs-icl-how-identify.html
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So I'm confused, are you still long miners or are you out now?
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I just closed 25% of my XAUUSD positions.
I will reopen them tomorrow. Or tonight.
I didn't close the miners. I was adding at the close.
+4 Reply
Perseus chartwatchers
Solid, thanks.
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Nightstar chartwatchers
Yeah, I get the sense that retail traders are still stuck in that 'take your profit and run before the boogeyman shows up' typa mentality. I don't blame them :/
+1 Reply
charlie12 chartwatchers
I was also a bit confused by your comment "We broke down, target price completed"
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Nice work man...
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hi dear I watch several times some times it is perfect plz. send your personal link or my e-mail aashirwad_ajay@yahoo.co.in so i can contact you
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hey arpi,
am always watching your posts, you are helping us,
don't you think that we have double top and if it breaks 1295.5 - 1295 we have a target 1286 - 1285 or to the up side if we break 1308 there will be target 1317
its abc technician
market reach the targets for rate hike we need to have new strong fundamentals to break 1307 - 1308
it stayed in this triangle from the brexit from june until august its not easy to go back in this triangle
needs to test few times then strong thing will make it break 1308
thank you,
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We will see very soon. If I'M right 1290 will catch up the price.
I think they are collecting the rest of the bears for a trap before the next leg up.
+1 Reply
i was late sending you but its happening now
we have a target 1286
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what about 1H? is 1292 still good entry?
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Yes. I reopened my closed 25%
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Hi Chartwatcher, will you change your view if the Bull Flag is broken?
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chartwatchers PRO DerekUweri71
It will mean that we are going don to 1282$ and test back the FBI high.
Thats all. We are not going to go down to 1250.
And yes there is no way to go 1200 .
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