chartwatchers
Long

GOLD - The one and only

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
10275 111 119
I would like to summarize where we are now because I still see a few people just don’t seem to understand what's happening. Usually I don't care about the fundamentals but this time we have to watch them.

1. Stocks are clearly collapsing. We have a failed daily cycle and we are heading down into the ICL. The buyers have disappeared because of the elections and if there was a US government manipulation regarding stocks they are way too scared to do anything now as the head of the FBI showed his power last Friday. Money is coming out of stocks. It should be crystal clear for everybody.
2. Oil             . This is a huge market and it's clearly losing ground. Maybe because of stocks, maybe because of something else but it's going down and pulling down oil             shares. Money is coming out of this sector also.
3. Dollar. The head of FBI had called the top in the dollar last week. One of the president nominees might be guilty at the very least of mishandling classified documents and perhaps obstruction of justice. They are selling the dollar.

When markets are scared it's time to face to safe heavens. In this case the dollar will not act as a safe heaven but gold             will.

So we have a really good chance that the one and only thing they will be buying during the following weeks will be gold             ....

What we had exactly during the last 2 weeks?
Gold             had broken down from the blue triangle. The whole breakdown was an artificial move with a big contract dump. The target price counted from the triangle (height of the triangle : red line) was completed at 1241$. We also tagged and break below the 200 SMA - remember from oil             how important is the 200 SMA at the ICL- but there was no follow through.
The first mistake traders committed was the hope in the bear flag what broke to the upside . Actually it was not a bear flag . It was a bottoming process after a manufactured break down.

The second mistake will be the back test of the triangle. A lot of traders will try to short at 1310 as a testback of the triangle. There will not be a backtest. The triangle is history. We broke down. Target price is completed. If we are back to 1310 we are not going to turn down from there we are going to break that level.

I want to prepare you for this scenario because tomorrow or Thursday we are going to test 1310.
I would not try to short this right now because we might see a more powerful event what we had at the Brexit night. My suggestion is to try to find an entry point and ride this wave.
This is going to be a huge run.

I don't think the FED will influence this tomorrow. If they want to have any chance for Clinton to win the elections they will be dead neutral. No rate hike tomorrow. And not talking about the rate hike in December.
Comment: We are having bear goulash for dinner tonight.
Comment: Almost back to the bottom of the triangle.
Shorts' last hope.
Comment: FOMC is coming up in 2 hrs. I have seen a lot of things on these days so I don't want to be surprised.
I have a horrible long position.
So I'm going to close 25% of my position before FED.
I'm going to reopen them if Yellen is not going crazy and she does what she has to do.
Comment: Not touching the miners long positions....
Comment: "I don't think the FED will influence this tomorrow. If they want to have any chance for Clinton to win the elections they will be dead neutral. No rate hike tomorrow. And not talking about the rate hike in December. "
Yellen did her homework well.
Comment: Now it's your turn:
"The second mistake will be the back test of the triangle. A lot of traders will try to short at 1310 as a testback of the triangle. There will not be a backtest. The triangle is history. We broke down. Target price is completed. If we are back to 1310 we are not going to turn down from there we are going to break that level.
"
Comment: Building the bull flag:
snapshot

1290-92 could be a good entry point.
Comment: Reopening the 25% position at 1292$ what I closed around 1305-6 yesterday.
Comment: I found a similar flag after an intermediate bottom.
We can be in the flag till the election or even a week from today...
snapshot
Comment:
snapshot
Comment: Interesting.
Are we having a bear trap?
snapshot
Comment: I can see again a lot of short idea in gold here in TV.
Hourly double top and now the testbcak.
This is the same story just as with the triangle.
The target price counted from the double top - height of the double top - was completed. So the testback will not work.
It was a bear trap. They will need to stop out soon.
snapshot
Comment: So far so good.
So this pattern testback rule is an old rule and in nowdays modern trading has forgotten about it. When target price counted from the pattern is tagged testback is not working.
The question now: are we ready to break higher or there will be one more round to the lower line of the flag.
snapshot
Comment: Let's see if bears are given one more chance to get out of their shorts.
I guess no.
snapshot
Comment: We had that last round down to the bottom of the flag in the night.
It looks a flag breakout to me...
snapshot
Comment: Fasten your seat belts.
New high is coming
Comment: OOM
Comment: BOOM
There will be no pop on election night... Unless you're betting on Trump, which is quite unlikely and... unless you mean a pop down, AKA "DROP".
Reply
Arpi,I had like to understand something please .
We all know Clinton has the most chances to win. In such case we all accept that GOLD and Miners will head down..
So why aren't you taking profit at this point and wait to see the results of election?
In a case Trump wins you can get back on the track on the other hand if Clinton takes then you are out during the correction ..Specially since Miners face a strong resistance at 26$ which suggest we achieved an intermediate top.
Thank you in advance !
Reply
This daily cycle will top in the elections night just like brexit. I dont want to miss a 100$ pop at the sidelines. This could be the trade of the year. And dont forget Comey is betting on Trump. His bookmakers are the best on the world. I think Clinton and Yellen are leaving. And the market will panic. It had begun actually. Look at stocks and the dollar. It will not change on Monday and Tuesday. These will fall like a brick not gold.
+3 Reply
jolu chartwatchers
Regarding Miners.. I want to share what I see .. I had like to know what are your opinion about it please

It seems to me the trend line is down and we just tried to break it before getting back to it..
I think we may have further downside on MINERS before we finally resume the upside .

I am attaching by a chart of GDX ... it is a Url address since i do not success to share directly the photo.

here is the address:
snapshot
+1 Reply
jolu jolu
oh ! I am happy (:
It did work!

Thank you for sharing your opinion
+1 Reply
jolu jolu
Seems we Comey changed his bet..
Reply
jolu jolu
Miners dump unfortunately..
Reply
AhmedKhattab chartwatchers
I think Clinton will win my friend.
Reply
Did you all saw the COT report ? My view is, this is going to fall like a brick.

Commercial shorts are back in business , be aware!
Reply
no BOOM. I think you have the right idea, the problem is it's Friday and we have a US election. All the serious money is at the pub and no one is opening new positions at this time except the few sad retail investors like me with nothing better to do :)
+2 Reply
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