Long-term all currencies are falling, it's simply a case of comparing which is the weakest and which is the strongest in the time frame we trade, choosing a pair that is falling at a similar pace together is a dangerous strategy and it's incredibly important we get the entries right.
What has not been going down is Gold, I've been bullish Gold since the 1040 lows of 2015, but we've now hit the 1360 highs of the middle of 2016 and were unable to break through and the last time this happened, we carried on down to 1120 late 2016, and we're now at a major confluence point within the southern boundary of the ascending channel, which coupled with the potential increase in US interest rates, could mean a break down and a trend change to Bearish gold, which would see us move down to 1240 the 50% fib level and potential lower to the 61.8% fib level at 1210. if that breaks, we're going back down to the 1100 lows.
The entry is simple, I'm expecting a pullback to 1290, this is where we'll enter and look for an entry signal if we blast on down, well as per usual, wait for a pullback, see link below on how to enter.
Patience pays, happy hunting!
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Very important to mention this pair could easily go Bullish big time. We have trade wars, European political and financial instability, Brexit, we have countries no longer reaching their forecasted and economic benchmarks, Oil, Copper and Iron Ore retreating all impacting the Aussie and Canada and an extremely loose "Dovish" attitude to monetary policy from Japan, but that's nothing new.
But right now, we're trading what we see, and fundamentals are what I use to then search for on a chart, more longterm than short-term unless there is an imminent report due out.
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Gold dropped beautifully, holding out for the lower target
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Expecting Gold to continue the move down towards 1262, we'll see some more volume after Crude numbers today
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Gold has now broken out of the ascending channel and into a potentially major bearish move due to the strength of the US dollar. Holding out for 1260 and lower
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Trade still active since Jun 17th, and I've now taken 80% off the trade and now we're moving sideways. I left this running while I was on a beach and helping my Dad with the gardening in Cornwall, 1288 - 1241 as forecast, nice trade.
Expecting a pullback to 1261 and then another move down to 1200 if the DXY and WTI continues with their move higher
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Stil in the trade.... we're still going lower, trade tariffs won't drive up Gold, because it increases prices, therefore save haven instruments like Gold, Yen and Swiss franc will be affected, i.e. sold.
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Dec 2017 we hit 1240 and bounced off straight up to 1360 within 3 months. We've now double bounced 1240 after ranging between 1320-1360 for 4 months and Gold broke down and broke through 1260 trend and we are therefore in a confirmed downtrend.
The question now is, will we carry on down or have we hit a double bottom. I do think we'll pull back to 1260 again, and we may range in that zone while we wait for the DXY to stop falling.
Bearing in mind the numbers coming out of the USA still support interest rates increasing and therefore it's unlikely that investors are running to gold to protect themselves, we can see that from the Swiss franc and the Yen, both in decline.
Expect a bounce to 1260-1280 and then a move back down towards 1200 and that is what will bring the big investors back in.
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Still in the trade as forecast, we're now approaching the end of the trade and therefore I've taken 50% profits. Still expecting a move lower.
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We should be home to a big profit on this one over the next few days
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Still in the trade, after last nights positive fed noises, US Futures rose, putting more pressure on Gold. Should I say 1200?
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Been active on Gold since the middle of June, all the talk of interest rates has kept Gold down nicely and we even touched on my 1210 target, which I missed because I was travelling and it didn't go through my profit target. So I'm staying patient and I see no reason why we won't get a retest and even break for 1200
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Since we broke 1210, I'm still in the trade, I have to say it's likely we break 1200, if that happens, we're going back to 1100.
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We have non-farm payroll today and some reasonable metrics that will impact the markets across the board, so an interesting first Friday of the month, currently I have an incredible portfolio of very profitable trades right now, check out my ideas, June and July was my biggest periods ever, but least amount of trades.
Be very aware of your entries this morning, in early, out early today, unless you have some excellent positions that can handle being held over the weekend, I certainly do, I've held some trades for over a month.
The stronger currencies are the US$, Yen, Cad and Swiss Franc, while this remains the case, Gold will break 1200, especially with a strong NFP report out today.
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Yes, still in this trade, no reason to bail now... I've been selling since 1345
Trade closed: target reached
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Time to target: 7 weeks Profit: 775 pips 3% risk - 1:7 return (21%)
Best summer trading for 4 years, constantly striving to improve.