White log-based fib calculations are a bit premature as wave (2) hasn't confirmed a bottom. These are based on a bottom at 1199.55 for illustration. Regardless, this is the bullish case should support hold and wave (3) take hold. Targets to be refined further after (2) completes with added confidence on 1-2. Timing uncertain, so don't interpret the labels as predictions on the calendar x-axis... Corrective structure in price over the past few months is not suggestive of new lows below last December's, at least not while price remains in support.
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I see my annotations got resized. Thanks tradingview... Counting last year's low as primary degree C of cycle wave II. In other words, a generational buy...
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nick.holland78
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Extension fibs clearly need to be updated to project a measured move off whatever low forms, presuming it holds the (1)-(2) set-up. Price is below ideal support, but that doesn't mean new lows are certain. While new lows are certainly possible, I'm going to continue watching for a reversal. Thanks Garrett Patten @ ElliottWaveTrader.net for pointing out the deep retracement at the last generational low on gold.
nick.holland78
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Ronnee
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How high would a break be needed to confirm (2) is confirmed or completed .? And not just a bounce or retrace or daily traders speculations.? Looking for a nice longer term entry, SL at 1198 maybe a bit much for me at this stage...Fed risks concerns a bit yet also USD strength ...cheers. Thanks for your excellent posts. Ron
nick.holland78
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@Ronnee, See the white squiggle line? #1 - I'll be looking for a clear 5-wave move to indicate wave 1 up. I'm showing the 61.8% extension, but could be as shallow as the 38.2%. #2 - Then, price needs to hold a corrective retrace for wave 2. #3 - Finally, price needs to break out over the top of wave 1 high. That'll likely be a strong move (see prior rally).
This 3-step plan will provide high confidence that (2) is complete and 3 of (3) is underway. A 3rd of a 3rd wave is the strongest and fastest move, and the most profitable to trade. Many will miss it, just my guess.
This is the place to be getting exposure if you haven't already. Waiting to buy after the steps I've outlined sacrifices some $$ for added confidence. Up to each to trade their own plan. I'm already long. Been layering into miners also. Some straight miner stocks have +1000% potential in their 3rd waves. Don't believe me? Look at what they've done in their initial rally off the lows. CDE and HMY come to mind.