After the FED Minutes I always take a look at this chart. (FED = FOMC meeting/ FEDM = FED Minutes. The numbers below the arrows are the dates of FED and FEDM) In the past the previous trend always had a follow through after the FED minutes. It seems the same is happening now. Gold's trend is usually turning at or ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The next FOMC meeting is on the 26th July. If I'm right the trend will be reversing before the FOMC meeting. I know many cycle analysts you follow are calling for one more daily cycle. The reason is the last intermediate cycle with the elections. There was one more daily cycle before the final intermediate bottom. In the next idea I will explain why I don't think this is the case now. It seems now that stocks want to break to new highs again and the dollar really don't want to roll over. How will we have one more pop with the rallying stocks and dollar?
The last bear flag tested back the 200 SMA. And yesterday we broke below the previous DCL. It's a possible level where the panic selling starts. All we need is a follow through day on Monday. If we continue the drop on Monday no question the panic selling has started . A bouncing dollar and the rallying stocks ( maybe a new high in the S&P) would support my idea.
Notice that we are below every important moving average. This is how the panic starts. The bottom could occur on the 18-19th July at 1155-60. Monday is the key...
SHORT FOLLOW THROUGH IDEA
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In the panic selling every bounce is used by the bulls to escape from the sinking ship.
Excellent. It's really good how you explain you point of view. You not only show us how to see things but you teach us too. That is amazing. Keep up with your good work. You are really a kind person. Thank you sir
Arpi,
Swap dealers are now bullish, net long. Commercials shed 43,000 short contracts. Managed money commodity funds are still long but bought back longs went short to the tune of 38,000 contracts
and the public sold net 4,000 contracts.
This is the most bullish the commercials have been in over a year at net short 97,000 contracts. Three weeks ago the commercials were net short 203,000 contracts. big swing.
gold to silver hit 85 to 1 which in the past marked a bullish phase.
We are probably within days or a week at most when we have a turn higher in the metals.
I would suggest that your premise of a turn higher soon is right on.
Will gold test 1199? I don't think it will
thanks,\
rwz
ArtFly
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Arpi,
You are inventing better and better titles. You are on the wave...;-) Soon or later Viktor Orbán will offer you a job ;-) Reading about him, I learned that he was born in the first capital of Hungary-Székesfehérvárze..which I once visited...
UnknownUnicorn938874
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@ArtFly, the first capital was Esztergom :) and God save Árpi from the job... What will we do then? :)))
ArtFly
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@Wiking,
It was only joke with the job.
Once upon a time I was with my parents in Hungary and on one of the tours the Hungarian guide said the first capital was Székesfehérvár and I remembered it.
But Hungary has had more than one capital city in its history: Esztergom, Székesfehérvár, Buda And a few more. I know ESZTERGOM because our Polish king Jan III Sobieski liberated the first capital of Hungary from the Turks since that time, the Poles and Hungarians have always been friends...