Gold Weekly Outlook Jun 29 — Jul 3 — NFP Thursday + PCE Maximum

📊 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK — Jun 29 — Jul 3, 2026
XAUUSD Daily | BEARISH → Watching for reversal

Verified closing prices — June 26, 2026:
🥇 Gold: $4,046
🛢️ Brent: $73.47
₿ Bitcoin: $59,353
📊 Dow Mini: 52,289
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1399
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⚡ WEEK IN REVIEW — Jun 22-26:

Three dominant stories:

1️⃣ US-IRAN CEASEFIRE SIGNED:
Strait of Hormuz reopened.
1 billion barrels of trapped oil
flowing back to market.
Brent crashed from $82 → $73.
War premium = essentially GONE.

2️⃣ PCE HIT 3-YEAR HIGH:
Headline PCE May: +4.1% YoY ❌
→ Highest since April 2023
→ 3rd consecutive monthly increase
Core PCE: +3.4% ❌ above forecast

3️⃣ GDP BEAT:
Q1 2026 final: +2.1% vs +1.6% ✅
Equipment investment: +17.2%
But consumer spending: only +1.4% ⚠️

Verdict: STAGFLATION confirmed.
Growth OK + Inflation accelerating
= Fed cannot cut rates.
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📊 WEEK PERFORMANCE — Jun 22-26:

🥇 Gold: $4,340 → $4,046 = -6.8% 🔴
🛢️ Brent: $82.89 → $73.47 = -11.4% 🔴
₿ Bitcoin: $66,140 → $59,353 = -10.3% 🔴
📊 Dow Mini: 52,136 → 52,289 = +0.3% ✅
💶 EUR/USD: 1.1609 → 1.1399 = -1.8%

Everything fell except Dow.
Dollar was the only winner.
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🔍 TECHNICAL PICTURE (Daily):

🔴 Resistance 3: $4,380 (EMA 200)
🔴 Resistance 2: $4,200
🔴 Resistance 1: $4,100
🔵 Current price: $4,046
🟡 Support 1: $4,000 ← CRITICAL
🟢 Support 2: $3,850-3,900

Gold touched $3,981 this week —
BELOW $4,000 for first time
since December 2025.

Then bounced back to $4,046.

$4,000 = critical psychological level.
Holding above it = correction.
Breaking below = bear market.

EMA 200: $4,380 — far above.
EMA 50: ~$4,500 — very far above.
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💡 ONE BULLISH SIGNAL:

Analysts say May PCE may be the PEAK.

Why:
→ Hormuz reopened = oil prices falling
→ Brent at $73 vs $119 peak
→ June PCE should come in LOWER
→ If confirmed July 30 = rate hike
off the table
→ Gold could recover strongly

This is the ONLY hope for gold bulls
in the short term.
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📈 SCENARIO A — Bullish (30%):

Triggers:
✅ NFP Thursday weak = recession fear
✅ Dollar reverses lower
✅ Iran re-escalates
✅ Oil bounces = inflation persists
but geopolitical = safe-haven

→ Gold holds $4,000
→ Bounce to $4,200
→ Relief rally

📉 SCENARIO B — Bearish (70%):

Triggers:
❌ NFP strong = Fed hike confirmed
❌ Dollar continues strengthening
❌ PCE June also hot (July 30)
❌ Bitcoin breaks $55,000

→ Gold breaks $4,000 again
→ Test of $3,850-3,900
→ Bear market confirmed
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📅 KEY EVENTS NEXT WEEK:

Monday June 29:
→ No major US data
→ Iran ceasefire developments
→ Gap risk at open

Tuesday June 30:
→ Chicago PMI
→ Consumer Confidence
→ Quarter-end rebalancing
= volatility possible

Wednesday July 1:
→ ISM Manufacturing PMI
→ ADP Employment
→ JOLTS Job Openings

Thursday July 3 🔴🔴 BIGGEST DAY:
→ NFP Jobs Report — 14:30 ET
(18:30 GMT)
→ Markets close early (July 4 eve)
→ Weak NFP = recession = gold ↑
→ Strong NFP = Fed hike = gold ↓

Friday July 4:
→ US Independence Day — CLOSED
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🏦 FED PICTURE:

New Chair Warsh — position clear:
→ NO rate cuts in 2026
→ Rate hike POSSIBLE
→ "5 years failing 2% target
is unacceptable"

But one hope:
→ Oil falling fast = inflation may peak
→ June PCE (July 30) could be lower
→ If so = rate hike off table
→ Gold recovery possible
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📅 KEY UPCOMING DATES:

July 3 🔴 — NFP Jobs Report
July 4 — US Independence Day CLOSED
July 10 🔴 — CPI June
July 30 🔴🔴 — PCE June
(most important for gold in July)
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₿ BITCOIN — BREAKING DOWN:

Bitcoin broke BELOW $60,000.
Current: $59,353.

Key levels:
🔴 Resistance: $62,000 → $65,000
🔵 Current: $59,353
🟡 Support: $58,000
🟢 Last defence: $55,000

Why BTC is falling:
→ $1B+ leveraged liquidations this week
→ Traders rotating to AI stocks
→ Hawkish Fed = risk-off
→ Treasury yields at 4.21%
→ 6+ weeks ETF outflows

NFP Thursday = key for BTC too.
Weak = recession = BTC relief
Strong = Fed hike = BTC $55K
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🛢️ OIL — WAR PREMIUM GONE:

Brent at $73.47.
Pre-war fair value: $68-72.
Remaining premium: ~$1-5.

Goldman Sachs base case: $56.
Ceasefire + supply glut =
oil has more room to fall.

Falling oil = GOOD for gold long-term:
→ Inflation peaks in May
→ June PCE lower
→ Fed hike less likely
→ Gold recovers
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🌍 THE BIGGER PICTURE:

Gold in 2026:
→ All-time high Jan 28: $5,589
→ Week's low: $3,981
→ Current: $4,046
→ Correction: -27.6% from peak
→ Still up +20% year-over-year

Long-term targets if Fed pivots:
✅ JPMorgan: $6,300
✅ Goldman Sachs: $4,900+
✅ Central banks still buying records

The bull case depends on:
→ May PCE = inflation peak
→ June PCE cools (July 30)
→ Fed holds, then cuts in 2027
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⚠️ MONDAY OPEN WARNING:

Quarter-end Monday June 29.
Fund rebalancing = extra volatility.
Iran ceasefire weekend headlines
= possible gap moves.

Wait 30-45 min before trading Monday.
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⚖️ OVERALL BIAS: BEARISH

Gold -27.6% from peak ⚠️
PCE at 3-year high ⚠️
Hawkish Fed ⚠️
Bitcoin below $60K ⚠️
Dollar at multi-month highs ⚠️

BUT:
$4,000 psychological support ✅
Oil falling = inflation may peak ✅
NFP Thursday = wildcard ✅
PCE June (July 30) = game changer ✅

NFP Thursday = this week's decision.
PCE July 30 = the month's decision.

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⚠️ Educational purposes only.
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