Do you wonder why trendfollowers can not make decent money recently in the three most traded assets? (I call them The Risk-4) The reason is simple: trendfollowing systems become less useful when markets trade rangebound around their equilibrium levels. But these systems are not completely useless, as they can still tell you clearly "Don't try to trade as if there were a trend!". Some trendfollowers simply do nothing when setups look like these. My full respect to them. Some others, who also like short term momentum based swing trading, sometimes enter positions, but even they know well they have to use slightly different risk management approach. One trick in this case is do not jump always in and out, but wait for the range "extremes" to trade.
The Risk-4:
SPX: Ichimoku Neutral. Trades exactly at 2144 equilibrium. EWO, haDelta and haOscillator say bulls shd be cautious.
EURUSD: Ichimoku neutral, Heikin-Ashi short term bearish momentum
WTI: Ichimoku neutral. Heikin-Ashi candle with haOscillator shows less selling pressure today, more indecision.
Obviously we can get more clarity after FED statement, but we'll have to wait until the dust settles. For sure I will not fight machines intraday.
My feeling that this FOMC meeting will be rather driven by big politics, not by views on markets, economy or monetary policy. I doubt FED will do or say anything before the election. If I were one of them, I'd try to be as neutral in comments as possible. We know which side put the Chair into position, we also know Mr. Trump already expressed how dissatisfied he has been with FED Chair Yellen. I doubt they would like to trigger any kind of risk-off, or correctioin on markets right now.
From these levels I think better risk reward is: small long Gold and WTI, maybe small long EURUSD (similar to small short DXY). SPX I don't like to give suggestion, as my natural bias is always on the bearish side there :-)
Comments
649bruno
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I am 68 and have been an active trader since 1983. I have found (usually the hard way) that a trend-less market favors the market, not me. I discipline myself to look for TREND, and I take the time to look at a wide variety of assets (usually more than 1,000 per week), so there is always opportunity. If there is a trend (as measured on a 4 hour or daily chart), the indicators I use work much better.
My disciplines: 1. Trend (Chop and Directional Movement); 2. Buy or sell Fractal; 3. Direction of alligator; 4. Direction of Ichimoku Cloud and its components;
5. Eight other indicators (in relationship to structure to the left on the chart).
I read and appreciate your work.
Speaking only for myself, I would like to quote Mark Twain: "Good judgement comes from experience, and most experience comes from bad judgement." Thank you. Don.
Kumowizard
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Guess what, 8 days passed and:
- SPX is Neutral
- Gold is Neutral
- WTI is Neutral
- EURUSD is Neutral
No Trend among RISK-4!
albertwt
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Thanks for the summary :-)
Kumowizard
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welcome.
you can check a detailed weekly/daily Gold chart, which I just released. Interesting
albertwt
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Yes it is very interesting for the W/D chart man :-)
I guess it is the to,e to buy this week,
sulbas
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Good approach. in additon BOJ also will effect the market waves besides FED.
My disciplines: 1. Trend (Chop and Directional Movement); 2. Buy or sell Fractal; 3. Direction of alligator; 4. Direction of Ichimoku Cloud and its components;
5. Eight other indicators (in relationship to structure to the left on the chart).
I read and appreciate your work.
Speaking only for myself, I would like to quote Mark Twain: "Good judgement comes from experience, and most experience comes from bad judgement." Thank you. Don.