The mood in the market has changed drastically if we were to compare now with the beginning of 2019.
The gold has shifted into a period of consolidation as the US-China trade war took a breather.
When the trade-deal failed to pull through, it eventually led to escalating global trade risk and the US economic growth is undoubtedly affected.
The Fed hasn't been as hawkish as it were in 2018 and instead, it has turned to a dovish stance, signalling for the cutting of interest rate to sustain its economic growth which is dampened by a prolonged trade war against China.
During the period where the Fed kept raising rate in 2018, the gold saw itself losing value by a whopping 200 dollar.
Yet, the recovery started halfway through the rate hike the very moment the market has a dampening view of any further rate hike in 2019.
And just recently, the gold long position has increased drastically as the Fed has signalled the possibility of a rate cut while the dollar is also at a 2-year high, a 618 level in the weekly chart.
The dollar has peaked, the interest rate has peaked, the tension of the US-China trade war is at an all-time high, what would be the outcome of the gold price in the next few months?
If this is the direction of the current market outlook, the gold will undoubtedly rally through the last half of 2019 and into 2020.
In the meantime, we have also seen that the gold has peaked at the top of a 6-year range starting but also a sign of break above of a 3-year symmetrical triangle caused by the 5th and ongoing Elliott wave.
As seen on the chart, should the market continue to move on the track of a falling dollar, the gold price will reach 1400 in the next 2 months, 1481 by the 4th quarter and 1550 in the 1st quarter of 2020.
Note: The market is extremely volatile to market changes and any long-term view should be watched over and monitored closely for any major economic events that could lead to major changes in the market outlook and market trend.
The gold has shifted into a period of consolidation as the US-China trade war took a breather.
When the trade-deal failed to pull through, it eventually led to escalating global trade risk and the US economic growth is undoubtedly affected.
The Fed hasn't been as hawkish as it were in 2018 and instead, it has turned to a dovish stance, signalling for the cutting of interest rate to sustain its economic growth which is dampened by a prolonged trade war against China.
During the period where the Fed kept raising rate in 2018, the gold saw itself losing value by a whopping 200 dollar.
Yet, the recovery started halfway through the rate hike the very moment the market has a dampening view of any further rate hike in 2019.
And just recently, the gold long position has increased drastically as the Fed has signalled the possibility of a rate cut while the dollar is also at a 2-year high, a 618 level in the weekly chart.
The dollar has peaked, the interest rate has peaked, the tension of the US-China trade war is at an all-time high, what would be the outcome of the gold price in the next few months?
If this is the direction of the current market outlook, the gold will undoubtedly rally through the last half of 2019 and into 2020.
In the meantime, we have also seen that the gold has peaked at the top of a 6-year range starting but also a sign of break above of a 3-year symmetrical triangle caused by the 5th and ongoing Elliott wave.
As seen on the chart, should the market continue to move on the track of a falling dollar, the gold price will reach 1400 in the next 2 months, 1481 by the 4th quarter and 1550 in the 1st quarter of 2020.
Note: The market is extremely volatile to market changes and any long-term view should be watched over and monitored closely for any major economic events that could lead to major changes in the market outlook and market trend.
