Gold: Potential long opportunity.

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
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Weekly Timeframe: For anyone who bought based off of the bullish weekly pin-bar candle that broke through the weekly demand area at 1156.70-1194.45 last week will likely be in serious drawdown now. Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what’s happening.

Daily Timeframe: For anyone who read Monday’s analysis of this pair, you would have likely resisted buying on the break of that weekly pin-bar candle, as it was reported that all price had effectively done was traded directly towards a major daily support flip level at 1182.01. For us to consider buying into this market, a positive close above 1182.01 would be required. Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what the lower-timeframe picture looks like.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe on the other hand is currently showing bullish price action.

Monday’s analysis reported that price had broken above a very important 4hr supply area at 1174.84-1168.15 seen marked with a blue arrow. The importance comes from this being an area where pro money likely made the ‘decision’ to break below the weekly demand area mentioned above at 1156.70-1194.45.

With the above taken into consideration, we see a potential bullish set up forming, here’s why:

1. Sellers have been consumed around the aforementioned 4hr supply area, which effectively clears the path north to around a 4hr support flip level seen at 1182.93 (the daily timeframe shows this as a major support flip level – see above).
2. Price has yet to hit the above 4hr support flip level, and this is how we want it to stay since it will be take-profit target.
3. We believe that there are active buy orders are lurking around 1138.51, above a 4hr Quasimodo support area coming in at 1131.41-1137.65. This would be a perfect area to enter long targeting 1182.93 – just look at the potential risk to reward there if we took profit at 1182.93

This set up could take some time to unfold, but for the time being, this is all we’d risk our money on.

Buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: 1138.51 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1130.21).

• Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
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