XAUUSD — Sell the H1 Fibonacci Retest

Sep 8

Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains cautious as stronger August U.S. payrolls keep the probability of a September Fed hike near 60%. Rising oil prices are adding inflation risk, while the softer U.S. dollar provides some support. Markets now turn to Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI, which could materially shift Fed expectations and XAUUSD volatility.

Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, XAUUSD is trading near 4,399 after rejecting from the 4,438–4,440 area and compressing between descending resistance and rising support. The preferred sell zone is 4,438–4,455, where Fibonacci resistance, the marked supply area, and the descending trendline converge. If price rebounds into this zone and fails to reclaim it, sellers may target 4,410 first, followed by the 4,365–4,380 demand/liquidity area.

Important Key Levels
Current price: 4,399.21
Main sell zone: 4,438–4,455
Short-term support: 4,380–4,395
Short-term resistance: 4,420–4,440
Liquidity area: 4,365–4,380
Main target: 4,365–4,370
Invalidation: above 4,465

Trading Scenario
Main Sell Setup
Entry: 4,438–4,455
Stop Loss: 4,468
Take Profit 1: 4,410
Take Profit 2: 4,380
Take Profit 3: 4,365–4,370

Sell Condition
Wait for price to recover into the sell zone and show bearish confirmation. A long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed trendline reclaim, or H1 close back below 4,438 may confirm renewed seller pressure. If price breaks and holds above 4,465, the bearish setup is no longer valid.

Overall View
The H1 structure remains corrective bearish while price stays below the descending resistance and Fibonacci value area. The preferred plan is not to chase shorts near current support, but to wait for a recovery into 4,438–4,455. A confirmed rejection could reopen 4,410 and then the 4,365–4,380 demand zone. Hot PPI or CPI data could reinforce the bearish case, while softer inflation may support a stronger recovery.

Do you expect gold to retest 4,438–4,455 before moving back toward 4,365?

Sep 9

Trade closed: target reached

XAUUSD Update — Sell Plan Delivered

Gold remains volatile as Middle East tensions push Brent above $100, increasing inflation concerns ahead of this week’s U.S. PPI and CPI. Markets continue to price meaningful risk of a September Fed hike, although geopolitical demand is providing some support to gold.

Technically, XAUUSD followed the bearish plan after rejecting the marked sell area. Price broke below short-term support and extended toward 4,340–4,350, delivering roughly 98 points of downside before rebounding toward 4,403.

The bearish objective has been reached. Fresh shorts now require another rejection from resistance rather than chasing the completed move.