BEI
Long

Probable XAUUSD bounce of the year

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
964 29 4
1450-1500 : upper trendline of trending channel
YenZa
3 years ago
1700 is possible bottom target for this time's pullback. 1300 look like little bit high.
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
did you mean 1270 instead?
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YenZa
3 years ago
sorry, yes, 1270
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
it is possible indeed, but as always we cannot know the exact place where it should bounce, i'd be watching miners closely, also Silver and market correction looming, all of those factors can slow and/or speed up the process. But if i see the underlining divergence on RSI as showed in the charts i'll go both hands and think later on exits.
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YenZa
3 years ago
please make a trend line( two bottom) from 1180 to 1250 to get a target for this correction, it is about 1270-1280
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
Yes i see the trendline you are talking about, history has shown it will not necessary bounce from there.
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YenZa
3 years ago
back to fib 0.618 about 1293 is possible a bottom too.
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
yes that would be number 3 support on chart, right now is hovering over number 2. what i am trying to imply in this chart is that prices will have a significant sharp up movement on this bounce, for my point of view, 1250-1300 for 1450-1500 before year end, this is just working short term overbought levels IMO but DAILY and WEEKLY still has room to go up
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YenZa
3 years ago
today's price action is reached your second suport line and start bounce,hopefully it work as the picture expected. I bought nugt today.
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
it's always bad to buy before confirmation and get in front of prices. But I bought some NUGT too haha. i am not really sure it's the real bounce yer but i am in small so it's ok, i'll be looking for signs of confirmation in the next few days, if holds above 1327 it's good. If not support #3 could make GDX go 23.23, almost -10% on NUGT so was not a good move, but hey i am in with you
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YenZa
3 years ago
according price action, it should have at least one day bounce from today price level. be sure we are in good buying.
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
yes that is what i think too, but fading the trend is always bad business, could keep going down and kill you slowly... :S we'll see monday how it handles, have a nice week end
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YenZa
3 years ago
GDXJ is a sensitive indicator for Gold miner price movment. Today it is less decline than GDX, it mean at least a short term bottom is in place. conbine with hour RSI & MACD, all of them show gold miner will bounce next week. good luck. Have a nice weekend
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
I sold my NUGT at the close, will get back in if gold gets over 1325-1330 or prints #3 support on chart. The fact that it was not following the miners rallying was pretty telling IMO, I might even scalp a short tomorrow under 25$ GDX
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YenZa
3 years ago
we will get answer on tonight or tomorrow. StochRSI showed XAU almost in bottom both hour or day charts. I keep nugt on hand.
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YenZa
3 years ago
i sold nugt too. look like gold will finish its right shoulder, target 1270 even more lower.
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
i made some DUST scalps, that deep? i guess you could be right and your first impression of bouncing of the trendline was correct. i was thinking 1300 level, right on potential SPY spike to 178-179 to get everybody out with GDX 23.53-23.85$ potential entry
snapshot
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YenZa
3 years ago
latest technical analysis paper http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomaspray/2013/11/05/gold-bull-trap-ready-to-close/?partner=yahootix
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
i understand the concerns of study but i think now it's not time to bail out and will be scalping upside when i see divergence to keeping it for longer if trend following system triggers, i'd give time to time, i am not saying this will be phenomenal rally, but at least make a mean reversion because long term charts still intact
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YenZa
3 years ago
I think only GDX and gold break down 24 and 1300, the downtrend can be determined, current situation is really tricky, still possible elliote wave 2 is in place. especially sliver shown very clear bottom chart and start rally. I am on sideline right now.
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BEI
3 years ago
taking some time but result seems to be the same, reaction is not as good as i thought for a 1400-1500 move but if market continues to sell you never know what could be the effect on gold.
snapshot
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BEI
3 years ago
taking some more time and downside but i still like it
snapshot
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YenZa
3 years ago
the price has broken the R3, How do you think next possibility?To push price down to 1200? or here is a bottom line?
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YenZa
3 years ago
sorry, i did not find your picture first.
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YenZa
3 years ago
new picture one hour ago
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
you were right all this time, bounce off trendline next option. This is perfect case of: anything can happen....after that i will have to re-evaluate.
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YenZa
3 years ago
thanks, all of price action(GDX, GLD, SLV etc) are touched the trending line, the miner stock bounce significantly, I am worry it is a trap.
will see what happen next week. have a nice weekend.
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BEI YenZa
3 years ago
Yes i got into the bounce on NUGT today, but sold at close because like you said might be a trap, and as it did since a week, if gold does not rally with it no way continues to go higher. Same compared to SPY i got worried of potential correction because gold prices were not confirming the reversal, i think that is why we got a rally, that and other factors like VIX still below 14, have a nice week end to, cheers!
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BEI
3 years ago
update for metals https://www.tradingview.com/loading/
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