XAUUSD — FVG Rejection, Sell Continuation

Aug 13

Market Context

Gold is trading around $4,399 after another rejection from the $4,430–$4,440 BSL + Supply area. The CPI-driven rally failed to establish acceptance above the highs, and price has since returned below the upper trendline with bearish pressure developing around the FVG.

The macro backdrop remains supportive enough to keep volatility elevated. July US CPI rose only 0.1%, reducing expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, but Gold has pulled back from its two-month high as traders wait for the next inflation signal from US PPI.

SMC View

The earlier bullish BOS confirmed the expansion into external liquidity, but the subsequent rejection from BSL + Supply and bearish MSS show that sellers are beginning to control the short-term structure.

The $4,392–$4,405 FVG / Imbalance is the main decision zone. Price is already testing this area, so the setup requires a clear bearish rejection rather than a blind sell. Failure to reclaim the FVG would strengthen the case for continuation toward the H1 Decision Zone.

Main Trading Scenario

Condition:

Gold reacts inside the $4,392–$4,405 FVG / Imbalance and forms a clear bearish rejection. A lower-timeframe bearish MSS or CHOCH is required before entry.

Entry: $4,392–$4,405 after bearish confirmation
SL: Above $4,415 and the rejection high
TP1: $4,358–$4,370
TP2: $4,288–$4,300
TP3: $4,238–$4,250

Key Zones to Watch

Current price: $4,398.650
Main sell zone: $4,392–$4,405
BSL + Supply: $4,430–$4,440
H1 Decision Zone: $4,358–$4,370
Discount Target: $4,288–$4,300
Major Demand: $4,238–$4,250
Invalidation: Acceptance above $4,415
Confirmation: Bearish rejection with MSS or CHOCH

Prime Gold View

The sell bias remains valid while Gold stays below the upper FVG and maintains the bearish MSS. The preferred plan is to wait for sellers to confirm control around $4,392–$4,405 rather than chase price lower.

If the FVG is defended, Gold could rotate toward the H1 Decision Zone and potentially extend into the $4,288–$4,300 discount target. Acceptance above $4,415 would weaken the immediate bearish setup.

No confirmation, no trade.

Aug 14

Trade active

Gold followed the bearish plan cleanly after retesting the MSS reversal area and failing to reclaim the broken structure. That rejection confirmed seller control and triggered another strong downside expansion, delivering approximately +918 pips from the planned setup.

Price has now pushed through the H1 Decision Zone and is trading near $4,329, keeping the bearish sequence intact. The next focus is the $4,285–$4,300 Discount Target, with the $4,235–$4,250 Major Demand as the deeper objective if selling pressure continues.

No confirmation, no trade.