We have all marveled at the massive move over last few weeks. We have all expected a pullback (me too) long before this point. We may well have topped now given a change in risk sentiment.
Fundamentals: Trade Wars still loom but the sword swinging has slowed. US economy and Fed Rate Cut outlooks changed late week. Stock markets look to have rebounded with some confidence.
Technicals: Green 4.618 at $1350 "should" have been the top of Impulse wave. Elliott Wave theory concurs for a perfect 12345 structure of impulse. Blow off top and sudden drop seems to indicate a topping formation.
Numbers: 1357-1361 may well be the top for a while. 1346-1348 is likely resistance for some time. 1343-1344 may invalidate ABC if it breaks up.
1332-1333 may well bounce it to higher highs. 1314-1315 is the textbook ABC retrace target. 1297-1298 remains critical to keeping uptrend.
Previous Analysis: (bit early but solid) (perfect entry long) (warning just in time) (perfect entries) (currently in play)
See some of my other Forex calls below. I also plot Crypto and some Stocks, check my Profile Page.
(perfect top, still in play) (just in time, quick 70 pips) (caught most of the spike) (Perfect entry, still in play) (Upthrust warning just in time) (Fib extensions at work) (recent perfect entries) (recent perfect entries) (the very tippy-top a year ago) (almost at a long term target now)
Of course, I have had total FAILS on some plots also, not going to pretend. But my plans offer PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT take profits. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
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Just hit first support and possible end of wave A. lets see if we get a bounce
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Zoomed in on the support zone, shows a near perfect "Ping" of the green 3.618 which makes the top of that zone
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Decent bounce after an exact Ping of the 3.618 this time
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Nice burst, but this fib of bounce says the 4.618 might call for a retest of say the 2.618
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Bounced right into the first Resistance, reaction here will be quite telling
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Back on short tf, we may have completed a 5wave impulse and 3wave correction, perhaps making ready for next leg up .
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Looking like a very viable wave B here
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Still making progress towards wave B target but about to run into some resistance, lets see how it goes from here.
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Looking through microscope of 5min chart, the bounce had a good Fib rhythm going, and its natural end falls exactly within the resistance zone originally targeted for wave B (but shown as sub waves ABC here) the blue fib series has the 8.236 and 9.6y18 bracketed the previously mapped resistance zone, so this looks pretty solid for next leg up.
Again, it is possible that the correction is DONE as just continue up from here. But it would better and more 'healthy' to have a clean correction now, rather than a major crash from having flown too close to the sun ....
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Almost there quite exciting actually!
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Target for wave B hit
and in main view Now lets see if it actually drops here. This could just keep going up now.
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So we had a spike and retrace today based on Trump tweets and such. But It seems this ABC might actually play out after all thought it was going bull today, but after the big wobble, it seems to be acting as if spike was not here, respecting resistance as it should have all along ...
Closeup, this B was as originally placed, counting on that resistance zone and as shown by the blue arrows, that zone is now being acknowledged even after spiking through it in both directions.
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Fib of the Bounce, very undecided but this Ping just now might be relevant (possible downside)