pongbao
Short

Gold: Too early to rejoice

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
I would like to think that it is too early for bulls to rejoice. I have closed out my long positions last Friday and am looking to short gold by market open. Gold weekly has shown slight recovery with a pinbar (following NFP results two weeks ago; disappointing results primarily due to Hurricane Irma's impact) confirmed by a strong green candle closing at 1303. However, looking at the monthly chart, volume has not picked up with the rise, not even close to half of the shorting volume we had last September, signaling the rejection of the upper trendline breakout attempt last August.

Note that we are still in a multiyear downtrend phase, and will most likely be the case until the next two years. Despite geopolitical tensions around the world, I am afraid that this will only be short term noises and down is still the way to go. This will be the last time we are seeing gold above $1300 for this year, targeting $1000 by end of next year.

Comment: Scalping long from $1280. Targeting $1295.
Comment: Closed longs at $1295
Comment: $1289.5** Keeping shorts.
Comment: Looking good. Targeting 1220 by end of month.
Comment: I will be shorting the gap up on Monday when markets open.
Comment: Hmmm it seems like gold is picking up the pace. I will need to re-evaluate my positions, but I still have my shorts from 1303 and 1289. Will hedge once 1297 is breached; bear party still in the table.
Comment: I would suggest a bounce at 1220 and nothing more. 1239 will be testing point. Monthly chart still bearish and will remain bearish. Remember that 1270 has been a very strong support for the past few months and it takes a whole lotta volume to get back up to the 1300s.
Scalping long from $1280. Target: $1295.
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It has grown in past years in far lower volumes. I would look at daily and weekly to support or counter your argument
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pongbao MaksimFA
@MaksimFA, agreed. Update me when you have your stance already. Constructive criticism is very much welcome in my posts.
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Volume is bad because China was on holidays for a week
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pongbao vx7777
@vx7777, despite that look at this:

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