In the last published chart, I highlighted the short term triangle with expectation of bearish resolution. This duly took place though the downside target of 1220 zone was not met. Since then the rally has been in what appears to be 3 swings ie abc, not impulsive, but corrective.
Therefore, I have revisited the move of the Dec 2013 low and whilst it looks very convincing as impulsive 5 wave up and I was willing to accept that, though it was not entirely clear and fits more a 3 swing move.
Consequently, with the complete overview from Sept 2011 high I am concluding that we are still in larger Wave 4 correction forming 1st Zigzag to Dec 2011 low followed by wxy move to October 2012 high as larger X wave.
Since then we have 5 wave decline to June 2013 low as wave A, followed by a triangle to recent high forming wave B and now we could be in early development of wave C unfolding in 5 wave decline. Hence new downside target could be well below last 3 lows namely 1100 as conservative or even 1000 as round number. This could be the despair phase leading to potential capitulation low.
Upon completion of this double zigzag we should resume the major uptrend to retest Sept 2011 high or make new higher high.
This is in contract to many Elliotwave Analyst expecting this entire move from Sept 2011 high to be 5 waves decline suggesting a multi year sideways to bearish decline.
For general discussion and possible use of Options to trade big swings with relatively limited risk view Youtube Video at Link: youtube.com/watch?v=OnVcuQfBUdM
Remember, this is my interpretation of the price action and application of Elliotwave along with standard technical analysis. You must do your own analysis for your trade planning.
Till we have more price data, I am tempering my downside expectation for gold to 1180-1160 and minor wave iv appears near complete so final leg down could do the trick unless it become wave 1 or 5. Here is the chart image
guys very interesting time - i am sticking to my view of EW3 pending and this is wave4 correction - 1140 i want to see before Christmas !
DanV
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If this is wave 4 the how is EW 3 pending. Sorry don't follow you.
baraq.adnan
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Sorry DanV typo error- EW5 is pending*
DanV
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Ah, that is what I suspect. though the downside might not be as deep as many are expecting. Interesting nevertheless.
baraq.adnan
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i am expecting 1140 max before correction. lets see :)
DanV
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I note what you are saying. However, that don't mean an automatic low is in as 1.618 time relationship could turn out be be some other relationship.
baraq.adnan
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again we are playing with probability - interesting point of view Goldfinga as well. i am sticking to my analysis as long as market proves me wrong. whats your last line of defense (price) before it confirm we are wrong on bearish side.
DanV
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Well absolute level would be 1280 which is the orthodox low of wave 1 of this cycle and it should not overlap that price. However, long before then hopefully price action will show evidence that we are wrong.